Review - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Review - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a magazine focusing on Finance

Articles from Vol. 91, No. 4, July/August

Editor's Introduction
The Thirty-Third Annual Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis was held October 20-21, 2008. Since their inception the Bank's annual conferences have been labeled policy conferences - yet, they also are research conferences. Each...
Estimating U.S. Output Growth with Vintage Data in a State-Space Framework/Commentary
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Richard G. Anderson and Charles S. GasconThis study uses a state-space model to estimate the "true" unobserved measure of total output in the U.S. economy. The analysis uses the entire history (i.e., all vintages)...
Issues on Potential Growth Measurement and Comparison: How Structural Is the Production Function Approach?/Commentary
(ProQuest... denotes formulae omitted.)Christophe Cahn and Arthur Saint-GuilhemThis article aims to better understand the factors driving fluctuations in potential output measured by the production function approach (PFA.) To do so, the authors integrate...
Panel Discussion
(ProQuest ... denotes formulae omitted.)The Role of Potential Output Growth in Monetary Policymaking in BrazilCarlos Hamilton AraujoPotential output is important in policymaking for a number of reasons:* It is a key variable in most macroeconomic models...
Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada/Commentary
(ProQuest... denotes formulae omitted.)Russell Barnett, Sharon Kozicki, and Christopher PetrinecThe output gap-the deviation of output from potential output-has played an important role in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada. This paper reviews...
Potential Output in a Rapidly Developing Economy: The Case of China and a Comparison with the United States and the European Union/Commentary
(ProQuest... denotes formulae omitted.)Jinghai Zheng, Angang Hu, and Arne BigstenThe authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the...
President's Welcome
As president of the Bank, it is my pleasure to welcome you to the ThirtyThird Annual Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.This conference concerns measurement of the economy's potential output. The concept of potential output is...
The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time/Commentary
(ProQuest ... denotes formulae omitted.)Robert W. ArnoldPotential output is an estimate of the level of gross domestic product attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use. A summary measure of the economy's productive capacity,...
Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force/Commentary
Kenneth J. MathenyTrend growth in the labor force is a key determinant of trends in employment and gross domestic product (GDP). Forecasts by Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) have long anticipated a marked slowing in trend growth of the labor force that would...
What Do We Know (and Not Know) about Potential Output?/Commentary
(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Susanto Basu and John G. FernaldPotential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and they often assume that potential...