Asian Development Review

A professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research.

Articles

Vol. 30, No. 1, 2013

Editorial
The Asian Development Review (ADR) has been an important part of the history of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and of its mission of reducing poverty across Asia and the Pacific since 1983. ADB and the ADB Institute (ADBI) are now undertaking a major...
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Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s
The dynamic process of integration of national economies has a long history, with two distinct waves: one, from the middle of the 19th century until its interruption with outbreak of the First World War in 1913 till the end of the Second World War in...
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Modes of Collective Action in Village Economies: Evidence from Natural and Artefactual Field Experiments in a Developing Country
In a canonical model of collective action, individual contribution to collective action is negatively correlated with group size. Yet, empirical evidence on the group size effect has been mixed, partly due to heterogeneities in group activities. In this...
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Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-Up in Low-Income Countries
Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully have followed their comparative advantages and leveraged the...
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Investing Overseas without Moving Factories Abroad: The Case of Chinese Outward Direct Investment
Chinese outward direct investment (ODI) is unique in the sense that it starts in the early stage of economic development and does not move factories overseas. Empirical analyses using firm-level data confirm that the main purpose of Chinese ODI is to...
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The Political Economy of Policy Reform: Insights from Southeast Asia
Economists broadly agree on many key economic policy issues, but economics as a discipline has provided much less guidance on why and how economic policy reform occurs and how to develop institutional mechanisms that enable governments to adopt "good"...
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Urbanization and Inequality in Asia
This paper provides a quantitative analysis of how the changing dual economic structure and urbanization affect inequality in Asia. Focusing on data for four countries-the Peoples' Republic of China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines-the paper asks...
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ADB Distinguished Lecture Renminbi Internationalization: Tempest in a Teapot?
Internationalization of the renminbi is a stated goal of the Chinese government, its brief flirtation with Special Drawing Rights and an Asian Currency Unit notwithstanding. Chinese officials understand that a dollar-centric international monetary and...
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Vol. 29, No. 2, 2012

How Effective Are Capital Controls? Evidence from Malaysia
This paper examines the role of capital controls as a macroeconomic policy tool in light of the Malaysian experience. It consists of an econometric analysis of quarterly data over the period 1990-2010 using newly constructed capital inflow and outflow...
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Comments on How Effective Are Capital Controls? Evidence from Malaysia Prema-Chandra Athukorala and Juthathip Jongwanich
Thank you very much for the very interesting and informative paper on capital controls in Malaysia. I think the author has provided a very useful summary of the capital control regimes in Malaysia leading up to the financial crisis. The author has also...
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Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Evidence from Thailand
This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policies in Thailand during the period 1993-2010. Our results show that policies toward capital account liberalization tend to be more effective than those toward capital account restriction in...
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Comments on Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Evidence from Thailand Juthathip Jongwanich and Archanun Kohpaiboon
Examining the Five Dimensions of Effectiveness and the ResultsThe paper finds that the different types of capital controls are effective in terms of affecting the volume and composition of flows. Using the real effective exchange rate, however, it finds...
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Are Capital Controls Effective? the Case of the Republic of Korea
Capital controls have recently attracted interest as capital surges in emerging market economies threaten to bring about economic instability and heighten difficulties in implementing macroeconomic policies. While an option that can be taken to deal...
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Comments on Are Capital Controls Effective? the Case of the Republic of Korea Soyoung Kim and Doo Yong Yang
The paper gives an interesting account and analysis of capital controls and liberalization of the Korean macroeconomy, especially on the historical and descriptive parts of the paper.However, the picture presented in the historical and descriptive part...
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Fine-Tuning an Open Capital Account in a Developing Country: The Indonesian Experience
Indonesia has operated a liberal capital account permitting relatively free flow of international non-FDI flows since the early 1970s. In this paper, we review the Indonesian experience and the effectiveness of capital restrictions during 1990-2010 using...
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Comments on Fine-Tuning an Open Capital Account in a Developing Country: The Indonesian Experience Sisira Jayasuriya and Shawn Chen-Yu Leu
The paper basically has two components: (1) a descriptive portion which presents the history of capital account liberalization and the use of capital controls in Indonesia, and (2) the construction of an index of capital controls and subsequent use in...
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Growth with Resilience in East Asia and the 2008-2009 Global Recession
This paper assesses why the 2008-2009 global economic recession impacted East Asia less than it did the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The paper utilizes a "growth-with-resilience" (GWR) index aimed at measuring the extent to which a...
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Vol. 29, No. 1, 2012

Rural-Urban Migration and Employment Quality: A Case Study from Thailand
This study investigates the effects of rural-urban migration on economic development in Thailand. It draws upon a panel database of 2,000 rural households collected from 2008 to 2010 in three provinces from Northeast Thailand and a survey of 650 migrants...
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Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?
The use of capital controls is an old issue. It arose in the 1930s and is steeped with ideological overtones. It sparked controversy even at the inception of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Two of the IMF's founders issued the following statements...
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Capital Controls: A Pragmatic Proposal
Openness to cross-border capital flows has enabled many developing countries to prosper, join the ranks of Emerging Markets, and even become suppliers of capital to the rest of the world. In 2010, for example, net total outflows from all Emerging Market...
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Empirical Evidence on the Efficacy of Capital Controls: A Summary Evaluation
The sharp rise in financial integration over the past several decades has gone hand in hand with a dramatic increase in overall liberalization of international financial flows. However, almost no economy has completely eliminated capital controls, and...
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A Brief Review of Literature on the Effectiveness of International Capital Controls
Michael M. HutchisonMethodologically, it is difficult to get actual "de jure" control index instruments. This implies that there could be significant measurement errors in the indices being used. It is also difficult to implement structural VAR analysis...
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Panel Discussion
This section summarizes the proceedings of the Panel Discussion. The panelists' names and corresponding discourse are presented in sequence.After the 1 997 Asian financial crisis, there was greater openness to using capital controls for prudential reasons....
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Creating Good Employment Opportunities for the Rural Sector
This paper examines the potential for sector-specific productivity growth, human capital, credit markets, and infrastructure to contribute to the development of stable, well-paid employment in rural areas of low-income countries. Particular emphasis...
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Winners and Losers of Multinational Firm Entry into Developing Countries: Evidence from the Special Economic Zones of the People's Republic of China
This paper examines the impact of multinational firm entry into local labor markets on employment, productivity, and wages. It exploits the People's Republic of China's rapid implementation of economic reforms and assignment of cities to special economic...
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Vol. 28, No. 2, 2011

ADB Distinguished Speakers Program: Poverty and Redistribution in Emerging Economies
Editor's Note: This presentation is about poverty and redistribution in emerging economics. It was prepared for the Asian Development Bank's Distinguished Speakers Program held on 25 October 2011 at the ADB Headquarters. Various types of poverty alleviation...
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South-South FDI and Development in East Asia
This paper attempts to measure the size of South-South foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing East Asia and the trends in it, the characteristics of the investing countries, and the investments themselves. It also summarizes the findings of studies...
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Forecasting Volatility in Asian Stock Markets: Contributions of Local, Regional, and Global Factors
This paper examines volatility forecasting for the broad market indices of 12 Asian stock markets. After considering the long memory in volatility and volatility jumps, the paper incorporates local, regional, and global factors into a heterogeneous autoregressive...
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Remittances and Household Expenditure Patterns in Tajikistan: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis
The object of this article is to assess the impact of remittances on household expenditure patterns in Tajikistan. More specifically, the paper applies propensity score matching methods to the 2003 Tajikistan Living Standards Measurement Survey. The...
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Industrial Deepening in Malaysia: Policy Lessons for Developing Countries
The Malaysian economy has undergone substantial industrial transformation, shifting from primary commodity production to manufacturing in slightly more than 5 decades since achieving independence. However, efforts to deepen manufacturing development...
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The Global Financial Crisis and Resilience of the Thai Banking Sector
The Thai economy is vulnerable to external shocks because of its high exposure to trade and capital flows. Despite its adverse consequences on the real sector of the Thai economy in 2009, the global financial crisis had little impact on the Thai financial...
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Does East Asian Integration Keep Up with the European Pattern? Empirical Evidence from Intra-Industry Trade in Europe and East Asia
This paper examines development of inter/intra-industry trade in Europe and East Asia. In order to quantify the level of intra-industry trade (IIT), a biascorrected Grubel and Lloyd index is used. The finding is that IIT is more evident in intra-European...
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Vol. 28, No. 1, 2011

Taking Institutions Seriously: Rethinking the Political Economy of Development in the Philippines
Despite the current fashion for issues such as institutional transparency or corruption, the modern policy development literature does too little to integrate the core ideas of modern political economy with standard economic theory. Little is done to...
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National IQ and National Productivity: The Hive Mind across Asia
A recent line of research demonstrates that cognitive skills-intelligence quotient scores, math skills, and the like-have only a modest influence on individual wages, but are strongly correlated with national outcomes. Is this largely due to human capital...
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Market Integration in the People's Republic of China
Over the last 3 decades, the product, labor, and capital markets of the People's Republic of China have become gradually more integrated within its borders, though integration has been significantly slower for capital markets. There remains a significant...
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Collective Action, Political Parties, and Pro-Development Public Policy
Broad consensus exists that the ability of political actors to make credible commitments is key to development. An important and little-explored determinant of the credibility of political commitments is the existence of organizations that facilitate...
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Infrastructure and Growth in Developing Asia
This paper applies two distinct approaches-growth regressions and growth accounting-to analyze the link between infrastructure, growth, and productivity in developing Asian countries. The main conclusion is that a number of countries in developing Asia...
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Vol. 27, No. 1, 2010

A Multi-Country Analysis of Achievements and Inequalities in Economic Growth and Standards of Living
This paper compares achievements and inequalities in standards of living across countries. Achievement is measured by an index constructed to reflect greater achievement for an increase in the standard of living of a country already at a high level of...
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Workers' Earnings in the Philippines: Comparing Self-Employment with Wage Employment
Analysis of labor force survey (LFS) data since the early 1990s reveals several important changes in the structure of the Philippine labor force. One is the movement from self-employment to wage employment across a wide range of production sectors. To...
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Performance and Sustainability of Self-Help Groups in India: A Gender Perspective
The existing literature on self-help group (SHG) bank linkage programs portrays them as an effective tool being used in various countries to approach a range of socioeconomic issues. This paper explores the performance and sustainability of this type...
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Can Trade with the People's Republic of China Be an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia?
The recession in the United States in the wake of the global financial crisis has dampened developing Asia's exports and growth. As a result, developing Asia is looking increasingly to the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a source of demand and growth....
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Regional Economic Impacts of Large Projects: A General Equilibrium Application to Cross-Border Infrastructure
A general equilibrium framework is used to study the regional economic effects of infrastructure improvements designed to reduce the costs of inter-regional trade. The results suggest that in the short run the kind of transport cost reductions consistent...
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Infrastructure and Trade Facilitation in Asian APEC
The sharp decline in trade volume and value during the recent economic crisis has temporarily reduced the urgency of progress on trade facilitation due to lower demand and costs for transportation and reduced waiting times at border crossings. However,...
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Vol. 26, No. 2, 2009

A Comparative Empirical Examination of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Four Asian Economies: People's Republic of China; Japan; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China
This paper compares and contrasts the determinants of outward foreign direct investment from the People's Republic of China (PRC) with those of outward foreign direct investment from Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taipei,China. The paper examines descriptively...
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Foreign Direct Investment by the Republic of Korea in the People's Republic of China
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the patterns and performance of outward foreign direct investment from the Republic of Korea to the People's Republic of China using five performance measures of the subsidiaries and four explanatory variables....
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Outward Foreign Direct Investment from India
This paper examines emerging patterns and economic implications of Indian foreign direct investment against the backdrop of the evolving role of developing country firms (emerging multinational enterprises) as an important force of economic globalization....
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Outward Foreign Direct Investment and the Financial Crisis in Developing East Asia
This paper examines two interrelated aspects of Asian economic dynamism and the management of external shocks, in the context of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing East Asia. Outward FDI from these economies has been growing rapidly,...
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New Multinationals from Emerging Asia: The Case of National Oil Companies
The history of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and of the rise of multinational enterprises is, to a large extent, the history of the global oil industry. In the twentieth century, oil-producing Asia was one of the main destinations of global...
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Developing Asia's Sovereign Wealth Funds and Outward Foreign Direct Investment
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have emerged in developing Asia as a policy response to an unprecedented accumulation of foreign exchange (FX) reserves since 2000. At the same time, developing countries have become an increasingly important source of outward...
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Vol. 25, No. 1/2, 2008

Preface
The economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has been growing at close to 10 percent annually since it embarked on a reform program in 1978. This rapid growth has led to a dramatic reduction in the incidence of poverty. However, growth has been...
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Inequality in Developing Asia
This paper argues that growing income and nonincome inequalities in developing Asia pose a clear and present danger to social cohesion, political stability, and therefore the sustainability of growth itself. The rapid creation of productive economic...
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Inclusive Growth toward a Harmonious Society in the People's Republic of China: An Overview
This overview introduces the background of the study "Inclusive Growth toward a Harmonious Society in the People's Republic of China (PRC)", under which all the papers in this special volume were prepared. It summarizes key findings of these papers as...
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Inclusive Growth toward a Harmonious Society in the People's Republic of China: Policy Implications
This paper examines the policy implications of adopting a development strategy anchored on inclusive growth for the People's Republic of China (PRC). In response to rising inequality, more and more developing Asian countries are embracing inclusive growth,...
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Reforming the Welfare System in the People's Republic of China
This paper reviews the recent progress in welfare system reforms in the People's Republic of China and looks at the experiences of Japan and Republic of Korea in establishing their modern welfare systems. The paper highlights three priorities for further...
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Achieving Equity and Efficiency Simultaneously in the Primary Distribution Stage in the People's Republic of China
This paper establishes a theoretical framework addressing the long-debated issue of efficiency and equity. Empirical evidence shows that a comparative-advantage-following development strategy promotes growth and narrows the income gap, achieving both...
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Inclusive Growth and the New Phase of Poverty Reduction in the People's Republic of China
Despite remarkable achievements in fighting poverty in the past three decades, numerous challenges remain for the People's Republic of China. The country's antipoverty efforts are in a key phase of strategic reorientation. This paper analyzes lessons...
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Growth Pattern, Employment, and Income Inequality: What the Experience of Republic of Korea and Taipei,China Reveals to the People's Republic of China
The People's Republic of China (PRC) achieved rapid economic growth during the last 30 years, but its income distribution has worsened. In contrast, Republic of Korea and Taipei,China experienced high growth for several decades after the 1950s, while...
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Income Inequality in the People's Republic of China and Its Decomposition: 1990-2004
This paper estimates income inequality in the People's Republic of China at the national, regional, and provincial levels using extrapolated unit-level household income data covering urban and rural populations of 23 provinces during 1990-2004. The estimates...
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Financial Structure, Development of Small and Medium Enterprises, and Income Distribution in the People's Republic of China
Since the 1980s, income disparity has increased significantly in the People's Republic of China, largely as a result of widening urban-rural income gaps. The urban-rural inequality stems from the dual economic structure between urban and rural areas...
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Vol. 24, No. 2, 2007

Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Kazakhstan
This paper empirically examines the relation between economic growth and poverty alleviation in the case of Kazakhstan using province-level data. It shows that provinces with higher growth rates achieved faster decline in poverty. This happened largely...
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New Global Poverty Counts
The main objective of this paper is to compute an international poverty threshold based on the food requirement that ensures adequate calorie intake for the world's poorest. The study proposes a new methodology based on consumer theory to provide a caloric-based...
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Inequality and the Imperative for Inclusive Growth in Asia
Developing Asia's rapid growth rates that have contributed to a remarkable decline in the incidence of poverty have also been accompanied by rising income and expenditure inequalities and persistence of high levels of nonincome inequalities. These inequalities...
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Interrelationship between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: The Asian Experience
This paper examines the relationships between economic growth, income distribution, and poverty for 17 Asian countries for the period 1981-2001. It deals with two distinct but related issues. First, it investigates how much growth is required to offset...
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Priority Integration Sectors in ASEAN: Supply-Side Implications and Options
There are 12 priority integration sectors of strategic importance for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Exports from the nine largely goods sectors, with almost three quarters of merchandise export value, are dominated by electronics-related...
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Vol. 24, No. 1, 2007

Measuring Sustainable Development: Theory and Application
Abstract. The paper applies the notion of social well-being to show that "sustainable development" should mean the maintenance of the productive base of an economy relative to its population. It is shown that the concept is operational. Crude data from...
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Measuring Government Inclusiveness: An Application to Health Policy
Abstract. This paper examines the issue of government inclusiveness-i.e., the extent to which a government can be characterized as "pro-poor"-within the context of inequalities in the health sector. The paper discusses different ways of measuring government...
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Farm Household Production Theories: A Review of "Institutional" and "Behavioral" Responses
Abstract. This paper reviews major lines of theoretical and empirical research on farm household production choices in developing countries. It provides a wide-ranging literature review of different microeconomic approaches to peasant economy, shedding...
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Measuring Inclusive Growth
This study proposes an approach to measuring inclusive growth. It draws from the idea of a social opportunity function akin to a social welfare function. In this context, growth is defined as inclusive if it increases the social opportunity function,...
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Institutions and Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction: The Role of Private Sector Development
This paper goes over some of the recent discussions on the effects on growth and poverty of institutions and policies, especially those that relate to the functioning of the private sector. It examines the empirical relationship between various measures...
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Vol. 23, No. 2, 2006

Planners versus Searchers in Foreign Aid
Only for the recipients of foreign aid is something akin to central planning seen as a way to achieve prosperity. The end of poverty is achieved with free markets and democracy-where decentralized "searchers" look for ways to meet individual needs-not...
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India: The Past and Its Future
The unshackling of India from its historically low rate of growth has occurred. The challenge of maintaining high growth rates in some states and igniting them in the presently bypassed and marginalized states has to be met squarely. Sustaining high...
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Inclusiveness of Economic Growth in the People's Republic of China: What Do Population Health Outcomes Tell Us?
Despite the People's Republic of China's (PRC) remarkable economic growth, improvements in population health outcomes slowed during the reform period. Along with increasing commercialization of the health sector, urban-rural disparities in health have...
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Investment Climate, Productivity, and Regional Development in a Developing Country
This paper examines the Philippines's investment climate in relation to the performance of manufacturing firms and the productivity of regional economies. The thesis is that the country's slow economic growth can be attributed in no small measure to...
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Vol. 23, No. 1, 2006

Development Lessons for Asia from Non-Asian Countries
The disappointments of the Washington Consensus have led to the search for a new paradigm to replace it. The chief failing of the Washington Consensus was that it represented an approach based on "rules of thumb." As such it was not well grounded either...
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Asia's Current Account Surplus: Savings Glut or Investment Drought?
Over the last few years economists have started referring to the existence of "global payments imbalances", reflected in the growing current account surpluses and deficits among different regions of the world (surpluses mostly, but not only, by a number...
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Asia's Race to Capture Post-MFA Markets: A Snapshot of Labor Standards, Compliance, and Impacts on Competitiveness
Labor regulations designed to protect workers, promote workplace equality, and improve working conditions achieve social objectives and affect international competitiveness. Considering these dual outcomes has taken on added urgency as Asian economies...
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Employment Generation for the Rural Poor in Asia: Perspectives, Patterns, and Policies
This paper reviews the literature on rural employment and employment generation. It considers three models of rural employment: neoclassical, dual economy, and dynamic linkages. Evidence favors the third model, which explains rural underemployment in...
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Vol. 22, No. 2, 2005

Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Monetary Policy: Issues in Asia
This paper seeks to outline issues arising from rapid foreign exchange reserve accumulations in Asia. Attention is paid to People's Republic of China and India for the significance of the accumulation fed by surges in capital inflows. The paper finds...
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Export or Domestic-Led Growth in Asia?
In recent years, some developing Asian countries claim to have started shifting emphasis from export-led to domestic demand-led growth policies with a view to achieving a more balanced growth strategy. This paper evaluates empirically how far this shift...
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Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-Term Forecasts for Regional Integration
With the emergence of People's Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have changed. Using a new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline...
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Measuring Efficiency of Macro Systems: An Application to Millennium Development Goal Attainment
At least part of the effort toward attainment of health and education Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could come from improvements in efficiency of delivery mechanisms. Hence, it is important to know which countries-or which regions within countries-are...
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Vol. 22, No. 1, 2005

WTO: Toward the Hong Kong, China Ministerial and Beyond
A successful Doha Development Round has the potential to raise standards of living worldwide, alleviate grinding global poverty, remove inequities in the trading system, and enhance international stability. With it, the well-being of Asia, which is home...
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Poverty Reduction Strategies-Lessons from the Asian and Pacific Region on Inclusive Development
The Asian and Pacific region has made remarkable advances in reducing poverty. This paper surveys the main contributions that attempt to explain the causes behind the region's success in poverty reduction, and assesses the impact of inclusive development...
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Promotion of Trade and Investment between People's Republic of China and India: Toward a Regional Perspective
Open regionalism and integration between the world's two largest developing countries, People's Republic of China (PRC) and India, in trade, investment and infrastructure can foster outward-oriented development, and economic and social benefits that...
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Quota-Free Trade in Textiles and Clothing: Policy Issues and Options for ASEAN
Constrained until 2005 by import quotas, the production and trade of textiles and clothing (T&C) has become widely dispersed with substantial losses in global income and welfare. Meanwhile, quota and tariff preferences from major importing countries...
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Total Factor Productivity Growth in the Philippines: 1960-2000
Average total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for the Philippine economy is negative, indicating that it has not been the source of growth in the Philippines. However, TFPG estimates showed an increasing trend in the 1990s when major economic reforms...
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Vol. 21, No. 2, 2004

Rice Production, Land Use Dynamics, and Infrastructure Development in Viet Nam's Mekong River Delta
This study examines the role of infrastructure development and technical change in explaining increases in agricultural production and changes in land use in the Mekong Delta Region of Viet Nam during the 1990s. The study analyzes longitudinal farm survey...
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Development Strategies for Inclusive Growth in Developing Asia
A continuous flow of technology/ industrial innovation is the key to sustained dynamic growth. Developing countries have an "advantage of backwardness" as they can borrow technology/industry from the developed countries. In an open, competitive market,...
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Economic Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Indian States in the Pre-Reform and Reform Periods
The paper assesses the impact of economic reforms on poverty incidence by decomposing the change in poverty ratio into growth/mean effect, inequality effect, and population shift effect for the rural and urban areas of 15 major states and at the all-India...
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Trade and Workers: Evidence from the Philippines
This paper combines labor force survey data with trade and production data from 1988 to 1997 to examine the impact of trade on wages and employment in the Philippines's manufacturing sector. In contrast to findings typically reported for Latin American...
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Vol. 21, No. 1, 2004

Divergent Asian Views on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Governance
This paper reviews recent trends and effects of FDI in developing Asia; domestic policy changes in six Asian host economies (People's Republic of China, India, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam); and how these policies and experiences...
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Regional Integration and Benefits from Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN Economies: The Case of Viet Nam
In recent years Viet Nam has been pursuing the twin goals of promoting inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and regional development in the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The paper surveys transnational corporations...
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Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Asian Transport Systems: The Case of Aviation
The aviation industry is critical for Asia to gain from participation in the global economy. The airline industry in developing Asia is generally dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the record of state ownership is poor. Foreign direct investment...
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