Magazine article American Banker

If Banks Can't Take Risks, Uncle Sam Must

Magazine article American Banker

If Banks Can't Take Risks, Uncle Sam Must

Article excerpt

If Banks Can't Take Risks, Uncle Sam Must

My article a week ago in this space lacked a positive note about the 1991 banking legislation. Its provisions are designed to make bankers more cautious and risk-averse. And its impact on big U.S. banks, particularly those that have international operations but some capital weakness, could be devastating.

Today I will be at least a little upbeat.

Something must be done to save the economy from the consequences of congressional shortsightedness.

But, to begin with, Congress won't undo what it has done. The Fed can't do the whole job by lowering short-term interest rates. And Congress, faced with expanding deficits, can't lower taxes very much.

For growth to take place, private capital from nonbanking sources must replace the private capital that the new law will drive out of the risk-taking banking system.

But most private investors are highly risk-averse. They don't like to evaluate credit risk. (This is why they had invested in banks in the first place).

The only way to lure private investors is to reduce the risks to acceptable levels.

Something for Everyone

When Congress reconvenes and consumer confidence has failed to improve, lawmakers will look for ways to reduce the risks to private capital. They will find that only the federal government can do the job.

Congress will discover that the most logical course is for the federal government to guarantee either all or part of the credits that it just caused the banking system to cast out. …

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