Magazine article The American Prospect

Uno, Dos, Tres

Magazine article The American Prospect

Uno, Dos, Tres

Article excerpt

OH, THOSE EXIT POLLS! Stoking Democratic expectations in the afternoon and early evening of election day, only to have them come crashing down as the actual votes came in. Now those polls have been adjusted to more closely reflect the actual vote. And they're still all wet.

At least they are when it comes to the Latino vote. If you believe the National Election Pool's (NEP) exit poll, Bush's support among Latinos leaped from 35 percent in 2000 to 44 percent this November--just about the biggest gain in any demographic that the president registered. Problem is, the poll's national figure is contradicted by its numbers in the individual states.

Political analyst Steve Sailer has done a yeoman's job of matching the national and state totals in the NEP's polls. For instance, the NEP's national poll breaks down the vote into regions, concluding that 64 percent of Latinos voted for Bush in the South. The NEP releases state figures only where Latinos are a large enough share of the electorate to get a big enough sample, and in the South, it has figures for four states: in Texas, if we're to believe its numbers, Bush won 59 percent Latino support; in Florida, 56 percent; in Georgia, 56 percent; in Oklahoma, 74 percent. …

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