Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Now It's Here: The Year of Living Dangerously

Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Now It's Here: The Year of Living Dangerously

Article excerpt

Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Appert called 2007 "Annus Horribilis" in a note to investors in December. Overall ad revenue tumbled for the industry, hitting new lows not seen since the recessionary period following Sept. 11, 2001.

This transpired with the economy not completely in a deep freeze -- but that may not be the case in 2008, as more voices warn of a recession. "We see nothing on the near-term horizon to alter our long-held view that investors should remain underweight in the sector," Appert wrote. "Results in 2008 could be particularly difficult in the face of weakening macroeconomic trends and higher newsprint prices," thanks in part to a strong Canadian dollar.

Merrill Lynch slashed its 2008 forecast, and is expecting total newspaper advertising to drop 5.1% after an estimated 7.1% falloff this year.

Fresh from the December Media Week conference in New York, Wachovia completely revised its numbers, knocking more than three percentage points off its old 2008 estimate for print and online advertising from a decline of 2. …

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