Magazine article American Banker

People

Magazine article American Banker

People

Article excerpt

A Rooting Interest

First things first: Take this with a grain of salt. Second, prepare to think of Super Bowl Sunday a little differently this year.

Deutsche Bank's chief investment strategist, Larry Adam, is pulling for a New York Giants win this Sunday, not because of football fandom or an affinity for the underdog (the wildcard Giants face the undefeated and heavily favored New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII).

Rather, Mr. Adam has taken a broad look at football's past, matched it with historical market outcomes, and issued a note to clients that he calls, with tongue in cheek, a compelling case to support the Giants. Consider, Mr. Adam said in his Monday note, that since 1967 investors in the Standard & Poor's 500 index have made more money overall during years when the National Football Conference representative (this year, the Giants) won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, a Giants Super Bowl victory has coincided with better results in the equity markets. After their 1987 and 1991 victories, the S&P 500 rallied 17.8%, on average. By comparison, Patriots championships in 2002, 2004, and 2005 coincided with an average 2.1% decline in the index. Should the Patriots win, they would be the first team since the Miami Dolphins of 1972 to finish a season undefeated. Unfortunately, when the Dolphins won that Super Bowl (in January 1973), it preceded the 1973-1974 recession, and the S&P 500 fell 14.5%, its worst performance in two decades. …

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