Magazine article Mortgage Banking

Economy to Bottom out in Late 2009 as Credit Slowly Thaws

Magazine article Mortgage Banking

Economy to Bottom out in Late 2009 as Credit Slowly Thaws

Article excerpt

The U.S. economy is in for a good long climb back toward recovery once it hits bottom later this year, but market watchers shouldn't expect anything more than sluggish growth and significantly less available credit, according to two construction economists.

During a late January Webinar, Jim Haughey, chief economist for Reed Construction Data, Norcross, Georgia, and Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America, Arlington, Virginia, predicted the economy will hit bottom during the late summer or early fall of 2009 but recovery won't begin in earnest until 2010.

Simonson said that nonresidential construction spending will fall 3 percent to 9 percent in 2009, with overbuilt retail taking the biggest hit and the office market weakening due to corporate layoffs.

Haughey agreed, adding that nonresidential construction spending will hit bottom in the winter of 2010. The big issue, Haughey said, remains credit availability or lack thereof.

"We still believe the credit freeze is progressively thawing," said Haughey. "But there is still some worldwide financial deleveraging going on, which will continue until 2010. …

Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.