Magazine article Economic Trends

Real GDP: Third-Quarter 2009 Second Estimate

Magazine article Economic Trends

Real GDP: Third-Quarter 2009 Second Estimate

Article excerpt


Real GDP and Components, 2009:Q3 Second Estimate

                                          Annualized percent
                                            change, last:

                      Quarterly change  Quarter  Four quarters
                      (billions of

Real GDP                    88.8          2.5        -2.5

Personal consumption        67.0          2.9        -0.1

  Durables                  50.3          20.1       -1.5

  Nondurables                8.4           1.7       -0.8

Services                    14.9          1.0         0.4

Business fixed             -13.5         -4.1       -19.3

  Equipment                  5.0          2.3       -17.7

  Structures               -16.1        -15.2       -22.1

Residential                 15.7         19.5       -18.8

Government spending         19.6          3.1         2.0

  National defense          15.0          8.9         5.2

Net exports                -27.6           -           -

  Exports                   56.9          17.0      -10.8

  Imports                   84.6          20.8      -14.1

Private inventories       -133.4           -           -

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Third-quarter GDP was revised down in the second estimate, as the annualized growth rate dropped from 3.5 to 2.7 percent, which was close to consensus expectations. The four-quarter growth rate fell 0.2 percentage point (pp), back to -2.5 percent. The downward revision was largely driven by a 4.5 pp increase in imports and by decreases in personal consumption and fixed investment. These losses were somewhat offset by a positive revision to exports, which added 2.3 pp to annualized growth. Another improvement could be seen in government spending, which went from 2.3 percent in the advance estimate to 3.1 percent in this revision. On the negative side, the second- to third-quarter movement of business fixed investment, from -9.6 percent to -2.5 percent lost some of its luster when it was revised to -4.1 percent. Personal consumption followed a similar pattern, as its apparent gains from the second to the third quarter were lowered by 0.5 pp.


Personal consumption remained the largest contributor to the growth in real GDP, adding 2. …

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