Magazine article Mortgage Banking

Forecast Says Loan Volume in 2010 Could Miss $1 Trillion

Magazine article Mortgage Banking

Forecast Says Loan Volume in 2010 Could Miss $1 Trillion

Article excerpt

In its latest single-family loan volume forecast, iEmergent, West Des Moines, Iowa, projects single-family mortgage origination volume will be lower than volumes posted last year for both refinance and purchase business.

The new numbers project total home finance volume this year will "settle at the lower end of the $1.032 trillion range," the company said. The company lowered its forecast for purchase volume, leaving the national purchase/refinance ratio at 49/51 percent by year-end.

iEmergent estimates that first-quarter 2010 purchase volume reached--at the most--$132 billion. Due to a number of factors, including expiration of the federal tax credits, the company projects total annual purchase volume in 2010 will not top $530 billion by year-end. The company said additional contributing factors include a slight decrease in average loan size and the potential for another 3 percent to 6 percent drop in home prices.

Part of the reason for iEmergent's lower volume forecast compared with other industry projections is its assessment of weakness coming from the demand side of the home-buying equation. …

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