Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

The Second Coming: Shinzo Abe's First, Brief Premiership Ended in Disaster. Yet Now, Recovered from Debilitating Illness, the Conservative Nationalist Is Back in Power and, Emboldened by "Abenomics", Is Determined to Revitalise Japan after Many Years of Decline

Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

The Second Coming: Shinzo Abe's First, Brief Premiership Ended in Disaster. Yet Now, Recovered from Debilitating Illness, the Conservative Nationalist Is Back in Power and, Emboldened by "Abenomics", Is Determined to Revitalise Japan after Many Years of Decline

Article excerpt

Had it not been for Asacol, a drug to treat ulcerative colitis, the name Shinzo Abe would probably be barely recognisable outside Japan today. True, Abe briefly served as prime minister once before, when he spent 12 embarrassing months in office in 2006 and 2007 plotting a constitutional revision that few wanted and fending off accusations that his government had lost the nation's pension records. That stint ended in disarray. Under him, the Liberal Democratic Party was trounced in the upper-house elections of July 2007, a defeat that eventually led, in 2009, to its ejection from power after an almost uninterrupted half-century running Japan.

He quit in September 2007, not long after that electoral drubbing. At the press conference, sweating and grey-faced, he looked like a broken man. As if his political miscalculations hadn't been bad enough, aides whispered darkly about the bowel disease that had drained him of energy. Few expected to hear from him again.

Yet in December last year, Abe (pronounced "Ah-bay") was re-elected to the premiership. This time, he comes armed with "Abenomics", a three-pronged policy aimed at reviving the economy after 2.0 years of drift. He has a socially conservative agenda, a hawkish streak and a mandate that should allow him to remain in office until at least 2016. That is a long time by the standards of recent Japan, where prime ministers come and go with the fleetingness--though rarely the beauty--of cherry blossom. In the past 30 years, only Yasuhiro Nakasone (prime minister from 1982-87) and Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006) have lasted as long or left anything approaching an impression.

"This is an important moment for Japan," says Hiroaki Fujii, a former ambassador to the UK who is now chairman of the Mori Arts Centre in Tokyo. "There is no national election for three years, no strong opposition parties and no strong personalities who can compete with Abe inside the Liberal Democratic Party."

The approval a few years ago by Japanese regulators of Asacol, an innovative medicine that has helped control Abe's bowel condition, was a prerequisite for his comeback. It was, at any rate, important enough for him to mention it in a speech at the Guildhall in London in June as an example of the ponderous and protective regulations that he said were holding Japan back. "If this drug ... had taken more time to appear on the market in Japan, it's quite possible that I would not be where I am today," he told a possibly bemused audience, some of whom may not have been au fait with his medical history.

On its own, the restoration of Abe's health was not enough to bring him back. The reasons for his unlikely second coming are twofold. First, there is the increasingly dangerous territorial dispute between Japan, the world's third-largest economy, and China, its second-largest, over uninhabited islands--rocks, really--in the East China Sea. That fight, which many ordinary Japanese consider an early sign of China's growing, muscular ambition, has made Abe's brand of nationalism more palatable to an electorate that still maintains pacifist leanings.

The second, perhaps even more important, reason for Abe's return is his economic plan. He has begun to enact a bold (some say wilfully irresponsible) programme to reflate an economy that has been eroded by steady deflation for 15 years and one dealt further blows by the global financial crisis and the earthquake and tsunami of 2011.

The plan, which centres on forcing the central bank to hit a 2 per cent inflation target, holds out at least a possibility of reviving an economy caught in a deflationary trap since the mid-1990s. If it works--and that is a very big if--Japan could plausibly emerge from the sense of inexorable decline and pending crisis that has hung over it through two "lost decades".

Who is Shinzo Abe? Any quest for his "inner soul" should begin--like his autobiography, Towards a Beautiful Country--on his grandfather's knee. …

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