South Africa's forthcoming elections in May will be a mere earth-tremor in its preparations for the earthquake of the real political power strategies and struggles leading up to the elections in 2019. After the May elections, new political party alliances will be formed. The goal is a complete political transformation. The following is an unscientific but strategic pattern analysis, not popular within the country's corporate media monopoly and with its armchair academic analysts.
Since 1999, the former Bantustan Transkei military leader, General Bantu Holomisa, has been preaching the formation of an opposition alliance to challenge the ruling ANC.
When the breakaway party, the Congress of the People (COPE), split into two after the fallout between COPE's leaders, Mosiuoa Terror Lekota and Sam Shilowa, the new breakaway joined General Holomisa's United Democratic Movement (UDM). Homolisa stated then: "This is just the first manifestation of a black dominated coalition."
Under the late President Nelson Mandela, Holomisa served as a deputy minister of tourism. Soon he fell out with the ruling African National Congress (ANC). He then formed a new political party with the former apartheid minister of defence, Roelf Meyer. Meyer had served to the end of the apartheid era as minister of defence under President FW de Klerk. But, he soon opted out of the alliance with Holomisa.
The question that arises is: Is Gen. Holomisa the dark horse in the forthcoming elections? When will a new alliance between his UDM and COPE-2, AMCU, possibly a breakaway from NUMSA and Agang SA, be formed? It could be the reason for Holomisa having met with the Association of Mine and Construction Workers Union (AMCU) on numerous occasions.
Like Holomisa, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa's (NUMSA) secretary general, Irvine Jim, also hails from the Eastern Cape. A host of small political parties on the fringe would join the new alliance Holomisa lobbies towards.
Agang SA's Mamphela Ramphele has no hope at all of leading any black South African party of note, not to mention becoming the president of the country. She is just too erudite, with no foot on the ground, accused of being unable to complete anything she touches.
Ramphele serves on the board of the Rockefeller Foundation in the US. She was vice chancellor of the University of Cape Town. At one stage she also served as a director of the World Bank and on the board of one of the platinum mining companies, where she did nothing for the struggling mine workers.
As Ramphele shares the same donors as the Democratic Alliance (DA) leader, Helen Zille, she would serve her masters better in the Holomisa camp. Though the DA has similar plans for 2019, they differ. The fallout between Ramphele and Zille seems to be part of the yet-to-unfold strategy.
The difference between Holomisa and Ramphele is quite obvious. Despite having been a former Bantustan military leader, Holomisa remains hands-on and therefore, relevant to local politics. He is respected in the Eastern Cape and has earned his stars. Unlike the elitist Ramphele, boots-on-the-ground Holomisa is not just an airy-fairy token for many well-heeled international Western interest groups.
The DA would seem to go it alone until 2019. …