Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

On a Vote and a Prayer: How Well-Motivated Evangelical Faith Groups Could Influence the Outcome of the Next General Election

Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

On a Vote and a Prayer: How Well-Motivated Evangelical Faith Groups Could Influence the Outcome of the Next General Election

Article excerpt

Luton South in Bedfordshire is not the most glamorous of constituencies, but in every election from 1951 onwards it went to the party that formed the government. It was, in the words of the trade, a "bellwether". What was good for Luton South was good for the rest of Britain.

Then came 2010 and Lutonians ruined everything. They voted Labour when the country didn't and were bellwethers no longer, just ordinary voters again. In losing statistical prestige, however, they gained something more interesting. Their constituency bore witness to the kind of power organised religion can have if mobilised behind one of the parties.

Before the last election, the local Labour Party in Luton was in trouble. Not only did it have to overcome the unpopularity of Gordon Brown, it had the added disadvantage of having been represented by Margaret Moran. Moran had enthusiastically backed the Iraq war and then became one of the most egregious abusers of the parliamentary expenses system. She had been deselected, but residual unpopularity would surely doom any successor. As if that wasn't tough enough, the television presenter Esther Rantzen chose to run in Luton South, too, attracting much publicity.

Labour's central office in effect gave up. Over the course of the campaign, the Conservatives spent almost half as much again as the incumbents, and Rantzen and the Lib Dems were not far behind. When all the spending was tallied up, every vote in Luton South cost more than 3[pounds sterling]--the most expensive in the country.

Into this hostile arena walked Gavin Shuker, Labour's 28-year-old candidate, a Luton boy with no political experience. He had alienated many leading figures in the local party: first, by putting himself forward from outside the constituency's usual hierarchy; and second, by winning selection (by just two votes).

"The party chair's first words were: 'You have just lost us Luton South,'" Shuker told me over coffee at a cafe near Luton train station, where we were joined by Fiona Green, leader of the "broadly evangelical, broadly charismatic" City Life Church in the town, and John Whittaker, the current chair of the local Labour Party, who is another member of the congregation. Shuker led the church until his selection as candidate.

Labour does not "do God", in the words of Alastair Campbell, but this group of believers does, and they won the party the seat. With minimal funding from the centre, and no expectation of victory, they created a strategy on the fly.

In hours spent on doorsteps, they realised that techniques honed telling sceptics about their faith worked well on potential voters, too. Often that involved "sucking up" a voter's 15-minute rant about Moran's expenses and the Iraq war, but it also made a lot of friends. Or, as Whittaker put it: "We worked our arses off for five months knocking on doors." Green recalled: "You do not expect people to change their minds on the doorstep but they did. It was amazing."

On the eve of the poll, bookies were offering odds of 5/1 against the Labour candidate, but the team was right to be confident. Turnout was up 11 per cent on 2005. Labour's percentage share declined, but the swing against it was below average. Shuker won and Rantzen lost her deposit. The two Luton seats are now Labour's only representation in eastern England.

"When I came into parliament, I had about ten MPs who came up to me to say their second-favourite result was Luton South," Shuker said. "The party had written off the seat and I genuinely don't think we could have held on to it if we hadn't done what we did." In short, a small, tight-knit group of politicised believers took on the combined spending power of the Tory party and a celebrity, and won. The question is whether this is a one-off, or something that can be repeated elsewhere.

"When I was leading at church, I was thinking: how do I build a church with people who do not go to church? …

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