Magazine article Clinical Psychiatry News

Health Futurist Predicts 'Disequilibrium' in Care

Magazine article Clinical Psychiatry News

Health Futurist Predicts 'Disequilibrium' in Care

Article excerpt

EXPERT OPINION FROM THE AAD SUMMER ACADEMY 2014

CHICAGO -- Health care is going to change more in this decade than in the past 45 years, according to health futurist and medical economist Jeffrey Bauer, Ph.D.

"We're going to go through an incredible period of disequilibrium and readjustment," he said in a plenary session at the American Academy of Dermatology summer meeting. "It's going to be several years of real ups and downs."

Dr. Bauer's forecast for 2015 through 2019 is far less bullish than most, giving just a 20% chance that national health spending will increase as a percentage of gross domestic product. The potential for stagnation is 35% and for decline is 45%.

Over the same time period, 35% of health care providers will cease to exist as currently organized, 40% will continue as organized, although precariously, and 25% will thrive by reinventing the way health care is delivered, said the nationally recognized author and management consultant.

Dr. Bauer made the following recommendations for improving the odds of success in the changing health care system:

* Manage the transition in core function from acute care to disease management. …

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