Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

A New Balance of Power: Is Full Political Union of the Eurozone the Only Way to Stop the Disintegration of Europe after Brexit?

Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

A New Balance of Power: Is Full Political Union of the Eurozone the Only Way to Stop the Disintegration of Europe after Brexit?

Article excerpt

The chaotic scenes in the Conservative and Labour Parties, widespread expressions of "Bregret", confusion about what the future relationship between the European Union and United Kingdom will or should be, discussion of a second EU referendum or a "Brexit election"--all give the impression that the vote was somehow an accident. It is true there was a strong element of contingency to the outcome, which some have called "an establishment cock-up". When in January 2013 he needlessly promised the referendum, David Cameron did not foresee that Boris Johnson would oppose him or that he would lose it. He could not have foreseen that a Labour leader would fail to mobilise the left-wing vote, and fail probably intentionally. The result was also determined by the unexpectedly brutal nature of the campaign, with wild claims on both sides, though those of some Leavers were by far the most egregious.

It is time, however, for those who wanted the UK to remain in the EU at least for now, of whom I was one, to accept reality. Britain did not decide to leave the EU in a fit of pique or absence of mind. Its departure reflects the deeper pattern of British history in Europe over the past few hundred years. It would certainly have left the EU at a later date, if the EU had not collapsed first.

The relationship between Britain and Europe can be summed up in two simple geopolitical propositions. First, that the EU was designed to deal with the German problem and the European Question, or, if one prefers, the German Question and the European problem, for they are two sides of the same coin. Second, the EU was not designed to deal with the British problem. Nobody claimed after 1945 that the UK had been such a danger to European peace that it required a supranational structure to embed and contain it. Nor did anyone argue that the UK, unlike most of the rest of continental Europe, had been so weak in the face of a threat from others that it needed the protection of a supranational body.

Britain and mainland Europe have thus been on quite separate paths for a long time. The central geopolitical fact on the continent was German power or potential power: demographic, economic and military. In the period before German unification this led to a system of conditional sovereignty in central Europe, designed to prevent another state--usually France--from using its resources to achieve hegemony, and to stop the Germans from developing such ambitions for themselves. It was based on the diffusion, not concentration of power. Things changed after German unification in 1871, which eventually unbalanced the European and global system. With great difficulty, Germany was subdued and a system of conditional sovereignty was reimposed on central Europe, the difference being that this time it was to be extended to the whole western half of the continent, which was also in mortal peril from Soviet communism.

The European integration project was thus a project of "dual containment", designed to "embed" Germany and deter Stalin. It was also a strategy of "dual mobilisation", in that it sought to draw on the energies of not only the western Europeans but also the Germans to fight communism, and certainly to stop fighting each other. This supranational project was strongly supported by the Americans and by parts of the British establishment, including Winston Churchill. The vision of a complete political union has not been realised, but the European Union has embarked on important supranational projects such as the euro, the Schengen travel area and common foreign and security policies.

In Britain, things developed very differently. Europe was at all times critically important. The question of England's relationship to the continent dominated policy and politics for hundreds of years, from France in the 15th century through to the Westminster crisis in both of Britain's leading parties today, which is primarily the product of disagreements over Europe. …

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