Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

Brexit and the End of the United Kingdom: With Labour in Disarray and Westminster Focused on Leaving the European Union, the Next Scottish Referendum Is the SNP's to Lose

Magazine article New Statesman (1996)

Brexit and the End of the United Kingdom: With Labour in Disarray and Westminster Focused on Leaving the European Union, the Next Scottish Referendum Is the SNP's to Lose

Article excerpt

If the political events of a single day can set the tone for what follows, the UK is on its last legs. Calling for another independence referendum at Bute House in Edinburgh on the morning of Monday 13 March, Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, appeared typically poised and (apparently) in control of events, while from Downing Street that afternoon there was the distinct sound of flapping.

Brexit highlights the contradictions on both sides of the constitutional divide. There is an obvious flaw in the SNP leader's argument that the UK extracting itself from an economically beneficial union--the EU would prove "catastrophic" while Scotland leaving the UK will be fine. Equally, Theresa May cannot credibly talk up the benefits of UK "independence" while casting the Scottish equivalent as a calamity.

Yet the optics in Edinburgh and London don't give the full picture. By any empirical measurement, the economic case for Scottish independence is weaker than it was in 2014. However, the trouble for unionists as for Democrats in the US and Remainers in the UK--is that the political conversation is no longer taking place in the realm of balance sheets or, indeed, of objective reality.

Sturgeon probably knew that this was coming from the moment she put a second independence referendum back "on the table" the morning after a majority of UK voters (but not Scotland) chose to leave the European Union. Yet between then and Monday morning, she had to appear reasonable, as if she had exhausted every possible compromise. The British government's inflexible response to the First Minister's quixotic plans for a "differentiated" Scottish settlement strengthened her hand.

No one in the SNP expected Theresa May to deliver the requested compromise. And while many believe that Sturgeon got a little carried away on 24 June 2016 in her expectation that pro-European sentiment would boost support for independence significantly, Brexit has been a political gift. Not only did the differential outcome in Scotland reinforce long-standing arguments about the "democratic deficit", it also enabled the SNP to recast Scottish nationalism as internationalist and cosmopolitan, in contrast to the "Little Englander" variety.

Nevertheless, the First Minister ended up taking the plunge slightly earlier than anticipated, probably because newspapers had suggested that Article 50 could be triggered on 14 March. Sturgeon will now get a second media "hit" at her party's spring conference in Aberdeen this weekend. Forcing her hand was not Alex Salmond, as some spurious reports implied, but the realisation that circumstances would never be this good again. Yes, there is the backdrop of Brexit, but equally important are the existence of a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament (which is unlikely to be sustained beyond the 2021 Holyrood elections) and the continuing dysfunction of the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn might go down in history as an unwitting facilitator of both Brexit and Scottish independence.

This time last year, Nicola Sturgeon was telling interviewers that she would pursue another referendum only if opinion polls showed a sustained lead for independence. Though two recent surveys suggest a modest tilt towards Yes, this has not transpired at least not in public polling. It seems likely, however, that private polling tells a different story, which is another reason why the SNP leader felt able to move as she did.

Crucial to the next vote is the group that we might call "Yes-Leavers". With a degree of intellectual consistency, its members want to regain "sovereignty" from both London and Brussels. In an attempt to keep hold of that constituency, the First Minister has attempted in recent months to detach a second referendum from Brexit, arguing that independence "transcends" this and almost every other political consideration.

SNP advisers also floated the idea that an independent Scotland might settle for membership of the European Economic Area, like Iceland or Norway (the party's favourite constitutional case study), rather than full-blooded membership of the EU. …

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