Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Ad Spending to Slow

Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Ad Spending to Slow

Article excerpt

Advertising in newspapers will slow but still grow in 1999, two prognosticators say.

Both Robert Coen, forecasting guru for McCann-Erickson Worldwide, and Miles Groves, chief economist for the Newspaper Association of America, say newspaper ad revenue growth rates will fall by approximately 25% in 1999. Coen says this year will close with local ad spending in newspapers growing to $38.9 billion, or 6% over 1997. But his 1999 outlook shows local ad spending gaining 4.5% to $40.6 billion. He projects national ad spending in papers -- the smallest but fastest-growing category -- to advance about 8% this year to $5.4 billion, and to slow to 6.5% in 1999.

Overall, Coen says, newspaper ad spending will grow 4.7% to $46.4 billion in 1999 -- compared with a 5.5% gain in all media, to $212 billion. Groves predicts similar slowdowns.

Classified, which advanced a robust 11.3% in 1997, will slow to a 6.5% increase in 1998, and 5.1% to $18.8 billion in 1999, he says. Retail -- up 5% in 1997 and projected to advance 4.8% this year -- will slow to a 3.8% clip and attract $21 billion in 1999 spending. And national, after posting strong 14.1% growth last year, is set to advance 9.4% this year, slowing to 5.1%. or a total of $6.1 billion in 1999.

"We think 1999's going to be a pretty good year," Coen told Wall Street analysts at PaineWebber's annual media conference in New York. "It's probably going to be better than anyone thought possible."

Newspapers will at least retain and possibly grow their ad market share in 1999, Groves says. …

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