Magazine article American Banker

Confident about Year-2000? You Shouldn't Be, Poll Suggests

Magazine article American Banker

Confident about Year-2000? You Shouldn't Be, Poll Suggests

Article excerpt

A new poll of information systems managers suggests many are unduly complacent about other companies' preparedness for year-2000 computerrelated problems.

Though 92% of those surveyed acknowledged they themselves had more work to do, they were confident that 34% of the firms they do business with are ready now for Y2K.

"A lot of companies say they're optimistic, but their optimism is not grounded on hard information," said Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, who sees a 70% chance of a global recession related to the century-date changeover at yearend.

The data suggests a gap between what companies have been saying and what their own experts believe. More than one-third of those experts plan to have a week's worth of cash and food on hand at home next Jan. 1. And 35% also expect to be at work on the Y2K problem the last weekend of the year.

Mr. Yardeni said the inconsistency between the managers' views of their own operations and their views on others' was disturbing. He noted one in ten acknowledged that their firms would not be ready by yearend.

Moreover, he noted that results of the poll are skewed toward the U.S. banking and financial sector, which is viewed as ahead of other sectors in coping with turn-of-the-century computer readiness.

The Y2K Experts Poll was jointly conducted June 9-16 by Mr. Yardeni, the Information Systems Audit and Control Association, and CIO magazine. Responses came from 892 business organizations worldwide, 25. …

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