Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Revised Forecast: Stormy Weather

Magazine article Editor & Publisher

Revised Forecast: Stormy Weather

Article excerpt

Due to changes in the economic climate, Miles E. Groves pares prediction for 2001 newspaper ad growth from 5.1% to 3.2%

Newspaper advertising this year will grow by 3.2% -- a lot less than newspaper forecaster Miles E. Groves' original prediction of 5.1% growth three months ago.

Groves' revised forecast, if it turns out to be on target, will mean a decrease of more than $1 billion in newspaper ad revenue, to $50.2 billion from $51.3 billion, from his original prediction. Groves' downward revision was based primarily on the poor performance of the U.S. economy as well as an informal e-mail survey of more than 50 newspaper executives, said Groves, chief operating officer and chief economist of The Barry Group, a Bethesda, Md.-based newspaper consulting firm.

National papers get the lion's share of national advertising, and Groves forecasts national advertising will grow a respectable 8.4% this year. Small and midsize papers, which depend overwhelmingly on retail and classified advertising, face bigger hurdles, said Groves, who predicts classified will grow only 4. …

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