Magazine article Marketing

OPINION: Broadcasters Must Attempt to Foresee Change in the Industry

Magazine article Marketing

OPINION: Broadcasters Must Attempt to Foresee Change in the Industry

Article excerpt

Trying to predict the future is a complete mug's game. The completely unexpected nearly always dominates and a successful prediction is likely to have been a matter of chance. Simple extrapolation from where we are now rarely works either.

But how about scenario analysis? Channel 4 must be hoping this week that scenario analysis won't suddenly become all the rage. In three out of four scenarios designed to give us an insight into the broadcasting world of 2012, C4 came out very badly.

Around 30 movers and shakers of the broadcasting world, brought together by the Bournemouth Media School and the Independent Television Commission, sat down to consider four very different media scenarios. In one, the world went entirely digital. In another, a significant number of consumers remained loyal to major networks. In a third there was a major shift from TV to broadband. In the final view, UK TV was dominated by global players.

As Roger Laughton, head of the Bournemouth Media School pointed out last week, more effort has to be made to try to anticipate change.

Laughton is careful to point out that scenario analysis does not claim to be able to predict the future. It's more a case of saying that if one thing happens, these are likely to be the consequences, and the scenarios have to be internally consistent.

There was certainly a considerable degree of consistency in the outcomes.

C4 is either privatised and gobbled up by a global player or is a basket case and has to be supported by a slice of licence fee. …

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