Magazine article Business Credit

A Glance: Worldwide Credit Conditions

Magazine article Business Credit

A Glance: Worldwide Credit Conditions

Article excerpt

A Glabce: Worldwide Credit Conditions

Fay Hansen

ECONOMIC GROWTH

GDP % change from previous quarter

         Q3 01  Q4 01  Q1 02  Q2 02

U.S.      -0.1    0.7    1.2    0.3
Canada    -0.2    0.6    1.4      -
Mexico    -0.5   -0.3      0    1.6
EU 15      0.2   -0.2    0.4    0.4
Germany   -0.2   -0.3    0.3    0.3
UK         0.3    0.2    0.1    0.6
France     0.5   -0.5    0.6    0.4

Source: Eurostat (www.europa.eu.int); Instituto Nacional
(www.inegi.gob.mx).

U.S. BANKRUPTCY RATES

Number of bankruptcy petitions filed in federal courts and % change from
previous quarter


Q1 01  312,335  (14.3%)
Q2 01  400,394  (28.2%)
Q3 01  359,518  (-10.2%)
Q4 01  366,841  (2.0%)
Q1 01  379,012  (3.3%)
Q2 02  400,686  (5.7%)

Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (www.uscourts.gov).

[GRAPH OMITTED]

U.S. Business Bankruptices Year Ending June


1998  50,202
1999  39,934
2000  36,910
2001  37,135
2002  39,201

Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (www.uscourts.gov).

[GRAPH OMITTED]

U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer price index - urban % change

Mar.                          Apr.  May  June  July  Aug.  Sep.

.3                            .5    .0   .1    .1    .3    .2

Produce price index % change
-2                            -.4   -.2  .2    -.2   0     .1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov).

Asia: Consumer Prices

           2001  2002  2003 *

China       0.7  -0.4   1.5
India       3.8   4.5   5.1
Indonesia  11.5  11.9   8.7
Malaysia    1.4   1.8   2.5
Hong Kong   1.6  -3.0  -0.5
Korea       4.1   2.7   3.3
Taiwan        0   0.4   1.6

Source: IMF (www.imf.org).

* Forecast.

U.S. INTEREST RATES

               Q2 02  Q3 02  Q4 02 *  Q1 03 *

Federal Funds  1.75   1.75   1.75     1.75
3 mo. T bill   1.72   1.64   1.55     1.58
6 mo. T bill   1.87   1.63   1.54     1.60
1 yr. T bill   2.34   1.81   1.62     1.81
2 yr. T note   3.22   2.23   1.98     2.36
l0 yr.T note   5.10   4.26   3.81     4.13

Source: Federal Reserve (www.frb.gov).

* Forecast by National City Corp. (www.nationalcity.com).

INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES

Short-term rates

(3-mo. interbank rates or 3-mo.CDs or T bills)

                             6/02  7/02  8/02  9/02  10/02

U.S.                         1.81  1.79  1.73  1.76  1.73
Canada                       2.76  2.85  2.93  2.90
Mexico                       7.49  7.88  7.07  7.82  8.23
Japan                        0.03  0.04  0.03  0.03  0.03
Euro zone                    3.46  3.41  3.35  3.31  3.26
UK                           4.11  3.99  3.92  3.93

Long-term rates
(secondary market yields on
 long-term bonds)

U.S.                         5.58  5.32  4.97  4.63  4.93
Canada                       5.37  5.23  5.14  4.92
Japan                        1.33  1.30  1.25  1.13
Euro zone                    5.16  5.03  4.73  4.52
UK                           5.12  5.01  4.71  4.46

Source: OECD (www.oecd.org).

U.S. TRADE

% change      August 02  YTD compared

                         w/same period 2001
Exports       -1.3%      -6.8%
 Merchandise  -1.9%      -8.4%
 Services     -0.3%      -2.6%
Imports       2.0%       -1.9%
 Merchandise  2.2%       -1.9%
 Services     1.1%       2.8%

Source: International Trade Administration (www.ita.doc.gov).

U.S./Canada. Year-to-date exports totaled $106.7 billion, down 5.2% from a year ago. Imports were $139.4 billion, down 6.9%.

U.S./Mexico. Year-to-date exports totaled $63. …

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