Magazine article New Zealand Management

Top 10 Workforce Predictions. (News, Trends, People)

Magazine article New Zealand Management

Top 10 Workforce Predictions. (News, Trends, People)

Article excerpt

Right on cue on January 1, North Carolina-based futurist Roger Herman sent us his top 10 workforce and workplace forecasts for 2003. Though more relevant to the US market you'll recognise many of the trends that underlie his predictions.

He concedes that this year's forecasts are "necessarily tentative because of the wild cards that may be dealt", like war for instance, and then suggested the truly interested should look out for his soon to be released e-book, Wild Cards: Playing with Less than a Full Deck. But for now, his predictions include:

1. As the economy picks up, employers will face the most severe shortage of skilled labour in history. Unprecedented churning in the labour marketplace will begin by mid-year. Skilled labour shortages in the United States will move even more jobs to other countries, where workers will improve their skills to perform new tasks.

2. More people will become independent contractors, selling their services to employers on a project or set-term basis. This movement will expand the work of specialised staffing firms and electronic job boards.

3. As the economy picks up, employers who have treated employees badly during the tight economy will be in serious trouble. More workers will leave, laid-off employees won't return, and fewer applicants will choose to work for them.

4. Workers fortunate enough to have found their preferred work environment will tend to stay longer. …

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