Magazine article Workforce Management

Beyond 2009

Magazine article Workforce Management

Beyond 2009

Article excerpt

Efforts to push workforce planning out three years can now incorporate forecasts calling for high unemployment, low inflation and subpar economic growth.


THE NATIONAL BUREAU of Economic Research crashed the stock market and its own Web server with its December 1 announcement that the economy slipped into recession sometime in December 2007.

Never mind that in the bureau's iconoclastic terminology, a recession is simply the down phase of the business cycle.

For workforce planning that requires more precise information, HR executives can turn to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's panel of forecasters, who are now ready to predict negative GDP growth through the first quarter of 2009.

Their forecast calls for GDP to decline at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 1 . 1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, with growth rising to 0.8 percent in the second quarter.

The forecasters predict job losses averaging 222,400 per month in the fourth quarter of 2008, 218,800 per month in the first quarter of 2009 and 108,400 in the second quarter of 2009, with the unemployment rate rising steadily to 7. …

Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed


An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.