Magazine article New Oxford Review

The Numbers Game

Magazine article New Oxford Review

The Numbers Game

Article excerpt

On the heels of the ballyhooed Gallup report (see the previous New Oxford Note) , the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) released its latestNationalVital Statistics Report (vol. 60, no. 7; released June 20) , an exhaustive report on the "Estimated Pregnancy Rates & Rates of Pregnancy Outcomes for the United States, 19902008." As with the Gallup report, the results of the NCHS report were immediately championed by pro-lifers as documenting further the strides the movement has made in combating the abortion juggernaut

The NCHS's report documents the number of pregnancies, births, miscarriages, and abortions in the U.S. on a year-by-year basis from 1976 to 2008. The year 1990 set the record for abortions in the period under study: According to the NCHS, 1,609,000 of all pregnancies that year ended in abortion. By contrast, in 2008, the most recent year of the NCHS study, 1,212,000 pregnancies ended in abortion. Quick to capitalize, gleefully reported (June 20) that "the abortion rate in the United States has dropped 25 percent since 1 990." Twenty-five percent! Wow. This eye-popping drop, tells us, proves that "the pro-life movement is making progress in stopping abortions."

That's certainly cause fora round of congratulations.

But before we start chest-bumping and high-fiving, let's take a deeper look into the NCHS study. It so happens that 1990 was the high-water-mark year both for abortions andpregnandes in the U.S. There were more pregnancies and abortions in 1 990 than in any other year between 1976 and 2008. So, we must account for the fact that there were fewer babies in the womb to abort in 2008 than there were in 1 990. Let's do the math.

In 1990 there were a total of 6,786,000 pregnancies, of which 1,609,000 ended in abortion. The abortion rate in 1990, therefore, was 24 percent

In 2008 there were a total of 6,578,000 pregnancies, of which 1,212,000 ended in abortion. …

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