Magazine article Foreign Affairs

Recent Books: Economic, Social, and Environmental: Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios/No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

Magazine article Foreign Affairs

Recent Books: Economic, Social, and Environmental: Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios/No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

Article excerpt

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios BY EVAN HILLEBRAND AND STACY CLOSSON. MIT Press, 2015, 240 pp.

No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends BY RICHARD DOBBS, JAMES MANYIKA, AND JONATHAN WOETZEL. PublicAffairs, 2015, 288 pp.

These two books consider the future- and how difficult it is to forecast. Hillebrand and Closson's insightful book sketches eight possible scenarios for what the world might look like in 2050. To impose discipline on the exercise, the authors examine the potential combinations of three distinct dichotomies: high and low economic growth, high and low oil prices, and harmony or disharmony in the global political order. They assume the continuity of the existing, state-dominated global political system but imagine how that system might respond to new threats and take advantage of new possibilities. Not surprisingly, China and the United States play major roles in all eight scenarios, as do technological innovation and energy policy. Some scenarios are more plausible than others. The most likely to take shape in the real world, the authors argue, are two that feature high economic growth and global disharmony: one in which oil prices are high and the other in which they are low. …

Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.