Magazine article The CPA Journal

Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Magazine article The CPA Journal

Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Article excerpt

Risk of Recession

The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession within six months increased from 17% in April to 20% in May, but still remains low. Weakness in the labor market, a dip in equity prices, and a drop in consumer confidence pushed the probability higher. Based on the economic data, Moody's Analytics believes that the economic expansion in the U.S. is still mid-cycle and has room to run. They generally see the U.S. dipping into recession when the probability reaches 60%.

RNFIB Small Business Survey

Small business confidence improved in June as the index increased from 93.8 in May to 94.5 in June. Small firms remain pessimistic about the economy over the next six months, but their capital expenditure plans have improved, even though confidence remains historically weak. Many small businesses cite the ability to find qualified workers as their biggest problem. …

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