Magazine article The CPA Journal

Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Magazine article The CPA Journal

Forté Capital's Selected Statistics

Article excerpt

Vehicle Sales

Vehicle sales increased in October from 17.8 million to 18.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This represents just under a 3% gain month over month and a 0.6% gain year over year. The pace of vehicle sales does not appear sustainable, however, as the industry will face headwinds from financing in the upcoming year. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as anticipated, this will filter down to auto loan rates and cause payments to rise. Financing will also become more constrained as the level of auto loan delinquencies will continue to rise, as it has in 2016. Another risk to sales is a decline in used-vehicle pricing, which erodes leasing sales and has accounted for an increasing share of sales overall.

Risk of Recession

The probability that the U.S. will be in recession in six months fell one percentage point in September, to 12%. The current expansion is getting a bit long, as the nation shifts from a midto late-cycle expansion. Entering a late-cycle expansion, however, does not mean that a recession is imminent. …

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