Magazine article Modern Trader

Hot Commodities

Magazine article Modern Trader

Hot Commodities

Article excerpt

Tech tumble? The technology laden Nasdaq 100 had a good year during 1999, but analysts expect an early stumble this year.

Bob Walberg, analyst at Briefing.com, says the Nasdaq should see about a 20% correction by the end of the first quarter because technology stocks are too far ahead of their fundamentals, pricing in solid earnings for the next several years.

Martial Front, chairman of Front Barnett Associates, says it's hard to know what could trigger a pun back, but he also expects a correction of about the same magnitude "but remember we are up 80% this year so that much of a pull back will be nothing, but it will help start to sort out who the winners and losers in the com world are going to be." He expects upward momentum to keep the index moving higher early this year before bulls take a breather.

Walberg says a drop to around the 3400 level following a runup to 4250 should occur, with the S&P 500 and the Dow performing better as money shifts from technology stocks to the broader market. He expects the Nasdaq 100 will recover by the end of the year to the 5000 range with an annual gain of about 33% after an early summer rally followed by a modest correction and a rally in the fall.

Cold juice Ban-ing any major freezes, orange juice should continue sliding on bearish supply data before it finds a floor.

James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group, says bearish data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is keeping the market from gaining. The USDA in December put Florida's all orange forecast at 214 million boxes, 1% up from its October forecast and a 15% increase from last year. Cordier says the USDA's figure is too high and the market should move higher through the first quarter. He says the March contract has good support at the 85 cents to 86 cents level and should reach at least $ 1.00 to $ 1. 10 in the first quarter.

Greg Parks, broker with Darby Trading Consultants, says a shift to using chilled orange juice is reducing demand for frozen O. …

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