Magazine article Washington Report on Middle East Affairs
Results of First Presidential Election Arab-American Tracking Poll
In a poll of Arab Americans conducted by the Arab American Institute Foundation (AAI), potential voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida expressed overwhelming dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush, fragile support for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), and small but significant backing for Ralph Nader. AAI president Dr. James J. Zogby presented the results of the first tracking poll March 12 at the organization's headquarters in Washington, DC. The poll was the first in a series of five leading up to the November presidential elections. Each state polled has a relatively high Arab-American population and is predicted to be a swing state in the upcoming election.
When asked how they would vote if the election were to be held today between Bush and Kerry, 54 percent of respondents supported Kerry and 30 percent supported Bush. This is in contrast to numbers from the 2000 elections where Bush received the backing of the Arab-American community (which, according to the Abu Dhabi Television Poll conducted by Zog by International, voted 45.5 percent for Bush and 38 percent for Gore, nationally).
The AAI's Zogby (brother of the pollster) alluded to voters' disappointment with Bush's Middle East policy, as well as with his overall job performance. Arab Americans, he stressed, not only are voting on U.S. foreign policy, but arc concerned with all the issues facing the country-the economy and healthcare included.
In the projected two-way race, Kerry received wide support across the poll's demographic subsections. The numbers changed, however, when voters were asked about a three-way race-specifically one with Ralph Nader in the mix. In a three-way race, Bush received 27 percent of the vote, Kerry 43 percent and Nader 20 percent. …