Magazine article Screen International

Study: How Slated, Rotten Tomatoes Can Predict Oscar Success

Magazine article Screen International

Study: How Slated, Rotten Tomatoes Can Predict Oscar Success

Article excerpt

A report published on Wednesday titled 'The Secret Formula Predicting Oscar Gold 2 Years In Advance' makes the connection between Slated's Script Score (See footnote 1) ranking and Rotten Tomatoes, which has become a critical metric used by Hollywood distribution chiefs.

Slated's data science team analysed hundreds of films released mostly between 2010 and 2016 and found that films with a Slated Script Score below 75 were unlikely to be Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (See footnote 2), although likelihood doubled with every five-point rise on the Script Score metric.

When Slated overlaid an ROI (return on investment) curve on the same data points, researchers found that films with a Script Score below 75 tended to deliver a 1.67x ROI and as the score increased so did the rate of return, reaching 4.83x for scores of 85 or above.

For the purposes of calculating ROI, Slated divided a film's worldwide theatrical gross by production budget, marketing and distribution costs as well as the impact of tax credits. Assuming a 50/50 back-end split with producers and other financing fees, Slated views an ROI of 2.8 or above as the greenlight threshold.

Correlation between Script Score, Certified Fresh and nominations

When Oscar nominations are added into the equation, the study found a "remarkably strong" correlation between Script Score, the likelihood of being Certified Fresh and earning a nomination.

The study group found that projects with a Slated Script Score below 75 had a 7% chance of an Academy Award nomination and chances increased with every five-point rise on Script Score.

Films with a Script Score of 85 or higher stood a 60% chance of getting a nomination.

Where a script score in the 60-75 range delivered a 7% chance of a nomination there was a 2% chance of a win, rising to a score of 85 or higher where a 60% nomination chance resulted in a 44% likelihood of a win.

Based on the data set, an average of 2.8 nominations resulted in an average of 1.5 wins, rising to an average of 5.9 nominations giving rise to an average of 2.4 wins.

How Manchester By The Sea could win more than two Oscars

Manchester By The Sea earned six Academy Award nods and a 96% Certified Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes. While the project's 70.5 Script Score ranking by Slated suggests on average a 2% chance of an Oscar win, the film's nominations elevates it to the bracket of films with a score of 85 or higher and thus a 44% chance of a win. …

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