Magazine article Amber Waves

Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports Would Likely Lead to More U.S. Jobs

Magazine article Amber Waves

Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports Would Likely Lead to More U.S. Jobs

Article excerpt

U.S. agricultural exports support about 1.1 million full-time, civilian jobs, according to 2017 ERS estimates based on 2015 data. How would U.S. employment be affected if the demand for these exports increased even further?

To answer this question, ERS researchers used a computational model of the U.S. economy to explore the possible effects of a hypothetical 10-percent increase in foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products. They found that such an increase would result in a 6.7-percent rise in the volume of U.S. agricultural exports. The growth in export volume is smaller than the increase in export demand because the demand stimulus is partially offset by an increase in export prices. Another finding was that total U.S. employment (agricultural and nonagricultural) would increase by about 41,500 jobs, above and beyond the approximately 1.1 million jobs currently supported by U.S. agricultural exports.

By apportioning the national results to the groups of metro and nonmetro counties within each State, the researchers were able to conduct a regional analysis of the export-employment relationship. For total nonmetro employment, 39 of the 47 States with nonmetro counties experienced nonmetro job growth, with 26 States seeing nonmetro job growth above 0. …

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