Newspaper article The Evening Standard (London, England)

Day of Reckoning Beckons If Sums Don't Work Out

Newspaper article The Evening Standard (London, England)

Day of Reckoning Beckons If Sums Don't Work Out

Article excerpt

WHAT a cheerful soul is Dr Tim Morgan, head of research at Tullett Prebon. He reckons we're doomed whether the Government cuts quickly or slowly. Too fast, and there will be no growth. Too slow, and the debt avalanche will overwhelm us. Is there an unhappy (but tolerable) medium? He's not sure. He's working on it, and promises his answer to life, the universe and everything shortly. The title, it must be said, is not encouraging. He has dubbed it the Armageddon Project, which rather gives a clue to the way he's thinking.

Meanwhile, he's produced a taster entitled No Way Out? or why the British economy is in very deep trouble. His thesis is that increasing debt has been the principal driver of growth, but now (at very best) both public and private debt is going to stop rising. Real estate, finance, health, education, construction and public administration account for 58% of the UK's national output, and are all debt junkies.

During the Brown boom, the private and public sector combined borrowed an average of 11% of national output every year. …

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