It may happen in 10 years or when some politician is promising a
bridge to the 22nd century. But eventually, the world's growing
population will demand more oil than the world's oil industry can
provide. The impact of this historical moment could be as
significant as the invention of the combustion engine itself.
The signs of decline are already apparent, and troubling.
* In the 1980s, the world produced 220 billion barrels of sweet
crude, but oil companies only found 91 billion in new discoveries to
replace that supply.
* Some 80 percent of the oil produced today comes from fields that
were discovered before 1973, and most of these are on the decline.
* Even with the current financial crisis affecting Asia and
Russia, global demand for energy is almost guaranteed to grow
dramatically, perhaps 60 percent by 2020.
So what's a world leader to do? Force oil companies to abandon
oil and invest in solar, wind power, or fusion technology? Abolish
Jeep Cherokees? Or trust that market forces will settle the issue
and create ample fuel for the world's ever-growing population?
"It seems ludicrous to say this during an oil glut, when the price
of oil is at such low levels," says Colin Campbell, an oil industry
geologist. But the "coming oil crisis" is very real, he says, and
the implications are staggering, particularly since the world's 5
billion and growing population depends on modern farm machinery to
produce its food. "I think the next century will really be a turning
point for humanity."
If Mr. Campbell's words have the subtlety of smelling salts,
that's by design. His latest salvos, printed in Scientific American
and the journal Science, have awakened a lively debate about when and
whether the world should wean itself from fossil fuels. And he is
Campbell's prediction of an oil peak in 2010 has been seconded by
scientists with the US Geological Survey (USGS), who predict a peak
in 2005, and the University of Colorado, who predict a peak in 2020.
Detractors argue that a peak would occur 50 to 100 years from now,
giving market forces time to adapt. But supporters of Campbell say
world leaders must act now.
"In the event of a shortage, somebody is going to be shortchanged,
whether it is the US or China, Pakistan or India. There's going to
be lots of room for misunderstanding," says L.F. "Buzz" Ivanhoe,
president of the M. King Hubbard Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
in Ojai, Calif. "Whether we will be able to meet the world's demand
for energy depends on whether the alternative fuels are available. …