Newspaper article The Christian Science Monitor

Power Struggle in Iran Clouds View for US Policymakers as President Khatami Tries to Leverage His Mandate for Reform, Hard-Line Clerics Offer Deep-Rooted Resistance

Newspaper article The Christian Science Monitor

Power Struggle in Iran Clouds View for US Policymakers as President Khatami Tries to Leverage His Mandate for Reform, Hard-Line Clerics Offer Deep-Rooted Resistance

Article excerpt

Finding out what Iranian decisionmakers are thinking - or even who they are, sometimes - is more art than science.

And during these days of conflict between reform and hard-line clerics in the Islamic Republic - which is still singled out by the US State Department as the "most active" state sponsor of terrorism - seeing through the impenetrable shroud is reminiscent of cold-war days of Kremlinology.

Iran is not a rival superpower sitting atop a nuclear arsenal. But as Iran asserts its strategic importance in a volatile region, and looms as as a natural conduit for Caspian oil riches, understanding its mysterious ways of rule becomes crucial. No one can say even whether moderate President Mohamad Khatami is winning his drive to end Iran's isolation and restore what he calls a "civil society" to Iran. Or whether conservatives are successfully thwarting him at every turn. "Things were easier" during the cold war, says a senior Western diplomat, who spent years studying the inner workings of the Soviet Union by reading deeply into the subtlest messages from Moscow. "You could read between the lines, and see who was in favor or not by how they lined up in official pictures," he says. "But this Islamic system? It's tough. This is a mysterious country." Part of the problem in "reading" Iran is that there are competing centers of power, of which even the government is often considered just another faction. Enter Mr. Khatami's brand of glasnost, based on a 70 percent election victory last year. His plans include a gradual detente with the US and loosened restrictions on women. But the result has been political guerrilla warfare in which the biggest battles are often fought behind closed doors. One public test will come Oct. 23, when Iranians elect members of the 86- member Assembly of Experts - the one clerical body that in turn elects, and can oust, Iran's "supreme" spiritual leader. The results are especially important, considering rumors of ill health of Supreme Leader Sayed Ali Khamenei, who approves every foreign-policy decision. But already the candidates' list has been denuded of reform-thinking clerics, sparking an outcry from Khatami allies and deepening voter apathy. "Many see Khatami as the only credible symbol of change, and say change is irreversible," says the senior diplomat. "But the conservatives are still strong, and like in the Soviet Union, they do not want change. "In the Soviet Union the system was hollow, and so it collapsed," he says. "But here the system is ... religious and deep, the commitment is ... stronger." Examples of brazen acts by hard-liners are many. In August, 500 people were reportedly arrested in a one-night sweep for violators of social codes; judges in vans handed down immediate sentences. And last month Khatami's information minister and a vice president were attacked at a public rally. …

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