Civil Rights May Prove Pivotal for Fall Races ; Issues like Racial Profiling Are Energizing Black Voters, Who Are Crucial in Close Races

Article excerpt

Add another issue to the list confronting voters this fall: civil rights.

Everything from affirmative action to police stereotyping is galvanizing African-American voters - and could have a wide-ranging effect on contests from the presidential race to the Senate battle in New York.

A large black turnout - which helped elect Bill Clinton in 1992 - could aid Democrats from Al Gore to Hillary Rodham Clinton. "Black votes matter in a close election, and we are expecting a close election," says Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

The battle for the civil rights high ground started in February in South Carolina, which became embroiled in a debate over allowing the Confederate flag to fly over the state capitol. Republican presidential candidates did not endear themselves to black voters by avoiding a stand on the issue. Sen. John McCain recently said he erred by not calling for removal of the flag. After Mr. McCain's shift, Vice President Gore challenged Gov. George W. Bush to acknowledge that the flag shouldn't fly above the state capitol building.

Then, earlier this month, the US Commission on Civil Rights weighed in with a report that was critical of Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida for ending affirmative action - a critique that may indirectly hurt his brother's campaign. It also found fault with George's home state of Texas, which was forced by court order to end affirmative action. The commission is expected to issue a draft report soon on police and race in New York City - a report that may influence the Senate race between Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Mrs. Clinton.

GOP minefield?

"Civil rights is potentially a minefield for Republican candidates," says Dana White of the Center for New Black Leadership, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.

Race relations get "pretty high" ratings as an issue that people care about, says Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Center for the People & the Press. In a poll last year, the center asked voters whether Gore or Mr. Bush would do the best job of improving conditions for minority groups. Gore won by 55 percent to 28 percent.

However, Bush is actually doing better among minority voters than most Republican candidates. Among black voters, he gets 14 percent of the vote. "I've never seen a Republican candidate with more than 8 to 9 percent," says Mr. Kohut. "I think Bush has gone out of his way to send signals he is concerned about minority groups."

There is no question that in a close election, black votes matter. In 1998, minority voters helped Democrats win in South Carolina, Georgia, and Maryland. In 1992, minority voters may have handed President Clinton victory. …


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