The turn of the millennium has sparked as much deep thinking in
cinematic circles as in other areas of the arts.
What's different is that film is such a newcomer to the cultural
Its future may be unbounded, but its past is hardly there at all -
dating only from 1895, when the first paying audience watched motion
pictures on the wall of a Paris cafe. Some historians think cinema
is truly a child of the third millennium that happened to be born a
few decades ahead of its time.
More widely agreed is that everything we've seen so far, from the
earliest silent flickers to the latest surround-sound extravaganzas,
is just the beginning. Cinema is an infinitely flexible beast, and
it's morphing into new shapes and formats that will change its
impact, its popularity, and its meaning in our lives.
What forms is it likely to take in years to come? Three
predictions are currently in vogue, although the third - perhaps the
most widely circulated - is being hotly contested by some sharp-
1. Living rooms, not movie theaters, will be our prime viewing
places. It isn't likely that theaters will fade into oblivion any
time soon, since a hefty portion of film fans enjoy getting out of
But the long-term prosperity of the home-video market, now
receiving another boost from the popularity of DVD releases, proves
the enduring appeal of living-room viewing. This will grow even more
as video screens become larger and as elaborate "home theater"
setups become cheaper and easier to install.
2. Internet distribution will make more movies available to more
viewers. Expanding opportunities to download new, old, and unusual
films will turn every home computer into a library of world cinema.
Just as important, freshly made productions not picked up by
theaters will be able to bypass the entire theatrical system and
make their pitch directly to downloading viewers.
This is happening already with the "straight to video" cassette
and DVD market. But the growth of Internet convenience promises to
enhance the symbiotic links between computer technology and motion-
One early sign was the March premire of Mike Figgis's
unconventional movie "Time Code," which took place on the World Wide
Web rather than a theatrical or DVD outlet. More recently, a 40-
minute fantasy called "Quantum Project" debuted on the Internet,
billed by its producers as the first feature produced specifically
for that medium. Acknowledging that theatrical features are expected
to run 90 minutes or more, one of its distributors told a reporter
that such requirements don't hold for the Internet, since there's no
need for a large quantity of "product" to justify the time and
expense of a trip to the multiplex.
3. Even in theaters, movies will be projected by digital
equipment via signals beamed directly from high-flying satellites.
No more faulty projectors, scratchy images, or damaged film.
This scenario is being eagerly touted by theater proprietors as
well as digital-video marketers. Viewers of some theatrical movies -
the futuristic "Stars Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace" is the
best-known instance - have already seen the possibilities with their
own eyes. Clearly the future is here.
Or is it? In a recent article, no less a pundit than critic Roger
Ebert makes a good case that film's future is going to be ... film,
unspooled through projectors from a booth behind the audience, just
as it always has been.
Reasons include the high cost of retooling to new systems; the
need to "compress" digital images for storage and transmission,
which reduces their quality, already a bugaboo for DVD buffs; and
increased possibilities for piracy of new pictures, which is reason
enough for Hollywood to drag its feet. …