Increased defense spending by Venezuela, Brazil, and Ecuador,
coupled with significant arms purchases by Chile and Colombia, may
mark the start of an arms race in South America - a region that
hasn't seen a major war between nations in decades.
"There is a real risk of it escalating and it could become very
dangerous," says Michael Shifter, the vice president of policy at
the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.
Concern has grown in the wake of recent purchases by Venezuela
and Brazil. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, flush with oil money,
has spent freely on attack and transport helicopters, Russian
fighter planes, and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles.
In neighboring Brazil, which, with half of Latin America's
landmass and population, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
recently asked Congress to allocate 10.13 billion reais ($5.6
billion) - a 53 percent increase - for its 2008 military budget.
Those increases came after Chile invested significant sums
earlier in the decade. Colombia has received hundreds of millions of
dollars in US drug-war aid for military purchases. And now Ecuador
is also spending more on weapons.
"I think that it is done in different places for different
motivations," says Mr. Shifter, who testified before the US Congress
last year on the implications of Venezuela's increased military
spending. "[Mr.] Chavez is using this as part of mobilizing the
country and thinking of a possible attack from the US. In Chile, it
is much more about giving the armed forces what they want. Colombia
spends because a lot of the [US] aid comes in the form of military
The problem, continues Shifter, is that "there is tremendous
mistrust between countries ... if you don't know what your
neighbors' intentions are, then it is natural is to build up as much
as you can to prepare for any contingency."
Some South American nations worry about Chavez's ambitions and do
not want him to gain a significant military edge.
"Brazil won't say it, but Chavez's build up is what has made it
invest in its military," says Reserve Col. Geraldo Lesbat Cavagnari,
coordinator of the Strategic Studies Group at Unicamp university in
Brazil and Venezuela already vie for political supremacy in South
America with Chavez bringing together the radical leftists under his
socialist banner and President Lula leading a more measured
coalition of social democrats. At this point, the two leaders are
friends and the two nations have no border quarrels or historical
feuds that could flare up. But there are tensions between Venezuela
and Colombia over gas-rich territorial waters and border areas where
Colombia's FARC guerrillas are active. …