Interest is growing in a possible US-Iran nuclear compromise that
could enable sensitive atomic work on Iranian soil, lower the risks
of proliferation, and ease Iran's isolation.
Despite a series of UN sanctions designed to halt Iran's ability
to enrich uranium, Iran has continued to make progress. And a
growing number of Western and Iranian officials and analysts,
arguing that turning back the clock is impossible, are pushing for a
new framework to ensure that Iran's nuclear work is aimed at
peaceful, not military, applications.
On the agenda is a proposal to turn Iran's uranium-enrichment
program into a multilateral consortium on Iranian soil, bringing
Western eyes and expertise directly into the project in a bid to
minimize potential weapons danger. In exchange, the West would end
Iran's pariah status.
"Now we are in the point of realizing our right to enrich uranium
in our land in Iran, by our own people," Foreign Minister Manouchehr
Mottaki told the Monitor during a conference on nuclear issues in
Tehran. "If any proposal is there for joining to this activity, we
can consider that."
US policy has focused on convincing or forcing Iran to give up
uranium enrichment - a process that Iran says it wants to create
nuclear fuel for power plants, but which can be used for nuclear
weapons if taken to higher levels. But sanctions have not curbed
Iran's program, spurring Iran instead to refuse to step back "one
iota" from peaceful nuclear technology.
The proposal for a multilateral effort was first made by Iran's
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 2- 1/2 years ago while speaking at the
UN. But Iran's technical prowess has grown since then from toying
with a handful of centrifuges, which are crucial to the process, to
a working chain of 3,000, with fresh progress on a more advanced
unit, something that may make Iran less interested in cooperation.
"We told them [in 2005] if your problem is confidence-building
... come and directly cooperate in our nuclear activities, [but the
West] didn't welcome it," Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear
negotiator said at the conference. The cabinet had ratified
operational guidelines for "any country" to take part, he said. "Our
nation however did not wait for anybody, you saw that they didn't
come and we started [our work]."
Analysts say a confluence of recent events may be improving the
chances of compromise. The US strategy of isolating Iran does not
appear to be hurting Iran's nuclear efforts. And Iran might see that
more scrutiny is a price worth paying to reassure the West that it
does not want a bomb.
"The zero-enrichment option is almost certainly gone, so we need
to figure out what the next best thing is," says Michael Levi, a
nuclear physicist and nonproliferation expert at the Council on
Foreign Relations. "It's far from clear we could get any deal under
the current circumstances."
Three decades of hostility between the US and Iran have tangled
politics and deep mistrust with technical issues about Iran's rights
and obligations as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT). A US-European package of incentives requires total
suspension of enrichment as a pre-condition to even begin
negotiation - a stance many argue is untenable.
"Right now, Iran is holding the cards," says Mr. Levi, author of
the recently published On Nuclear Terrorism. "The odds of us getting
zero enrichment without a military strike are low.... If we can't
muster much additional pressure, I don't see any solution that does
not involve limited enrichment. And if we are going to accept
[that], we want to put as many constraints on it as we can."
Experts say that to be effective, any joint program would depend
on - among other restrictions - Iran accepting the additional
protocol of the NPT, which enables intrusive, short-notice
Iran was praised in the February report by the UN's nuclear
watchdog agency for taking such open steps to resolve several
outstanding issues, but says it will not accept the protocol
wholesale until its case is removed from the Security Council