THE Soviet Union has been selling off strategic gold reserves,
sparking new concerns about the country's troubled economy.
"Dipping into reserves is the last resort," says Marshall
Goldman, head of Harvard University's Russian Research Center.
"It's either a sign of desperation or because the price of gold is
unusually high - I think it's a little of both."
Two developments spurred the recent sales, analysts say. First,
Moscow's hard-currency crunch is exacerbated by urgently needed
consumer imports and pressing repayment demands from Western
suppliers. Second, Iraq's invasion into Kuwait spiked gold prices to
well over $400 an ounce, signaling a profitable time for Moscow to
sell on the international market.
A financial adviser with the Comptroller of the Currency here
says that reports of Soviet gold sales - as much as $1 billion over
the course of several days, compared with the $2 billion to $3
billion average sale during a single year - are "no surprise."
Soviets are "looking to put their payments back on track" and good
credit is essential to "their efforts toward convertibility of the
ruble," he says.
According to US Central Intelligence Agency estimates, Moscow
holds $25 billion to $32 billion in gold reserves. But Roger
Robinson, a private consultant who was senior director of
international affairs at the National Security Council during the
Reagan administration and a former Chase Manhattan banker with
Soviet and East European portfolios, puts the range at $15 billion
to $22 billion. Since 1986, he says, when Soviet oil revenues
plummeted due to lower world oil prices, the Soviets have sold $10
billion of strategic reserves, in addition to selling annual gold
production. "They continue to dip into dangerously low reserves to
pay for imports," he says.
Before 1986, "the Soviets never sold as much as they mined, which
was 200 tons annually," says Judy Shelton, author of "The Coming
Soviet Crash." She says Moscow's "credit rating has slipped
dramatically" since its payments crisis last fall when Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev ordered an emergency $16 billion consumer goods
purchase to quell labor unrest.
During 1990, she says, "the Soviets have probably been working
the market, selling production and reserves for some quick cash and
pledging additional gold as collateral to creditors and suppliers. I
know they have been moving a lot of it - Aeroflot flights have
landed in London loaded with gold to be used as collateral for new
credits with commercial and central banks."
Robinson says the current Soviet objective is to "keep the price
of gold reasonably high and stable. They don't want to dump too much
on the market, or they'll look desperate and drive the market price