1. TURKEY: Its new alliance with Israel is seen as a threat by
Syria, Iran, and Iraq. The Islamist prime minister signed a $20
billion gas deal with Iran, but a worried secular military curtails
2. LIBYA: A secret NATO report leaked to a Spanish newspaper
warns that Libya will have ballistic missiles with a 1,250-mile
range by 2006.
3. ALGERIA: Islamic guerrillas have waged a violent insurgency
since 1992. Turkey, Egypt, and some Gulf states, trying to control
their extremists, see a dangerous example.
4. EGYPT: Though it receives $2.1 billion in US aid a year, a
CIA report last year warned that Egypt had acquired missile parts
from North Korea. Its largest military exercises since 1973,
carried out last October in the Sinai, were aimed at a possible
conflict with Israel.
5. SOUTHERN EGYPT: The Islamic fundamentalist violence of the
early 1990s has been crushed by Egypt's military, but remains a
potent force easily tapped in Cairo's slums and in southern Egypt.
6. SOUTHERN LEBANON: The last "hot" front line in the
Arab-Israeli conflict. Occupying Israeli troops here face daily
losses from Iran-backed Hizbullah guerrillas. Israel wants to get
out, but does not trust Hizbullah to stop rocket attacks on
7. ISRAEL: The Arab-Israeli peace process begun in 1991 has all
but collapsed, and was further shaken by a double bombing in
Jerusalem July 30. The US has done little so far to stop the slide.
The Israeli army has tested plans to invade and reoccupy the West
Bank and Gaza if Palestinian rule falters. Israeli Defense Forces
last year asked for a $1 billion budget increase to prepare for
possible war with Syria. Israel broke off talks with Syria last
8. GAZA STRIP: Antipeace Islamist groups are responsible for
terrorist attacks against civilian targets in Israel. Once jailed
by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, most activists have now been
released. There is renewed pressure to arrest them.
9. ARAB EAST Jerusalem: Jewish settlement continues on occupied
Arab lands, creating flash points. Palestinians born in Jerusalem
are also losing their residence rights under Israeli policy.
10. HEBRON: Handfuls of heavily guarded Jewish extremists live
among hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Diplomats expect
conflict to intensify.
11. TEL AVIV: Internal divisions have polarized Israeli society
between left and right, and pro- and anti-peace camps.
12. SOUTHERN ISRAEL: To counter Israel's nuclear arsenal - some
of which has just been reported by Jane's Intelligence Review to be
vulnerable to "third world missiles" with nuclear warheads - Arab
opponents have pursued chemical and biological weapons.
13. JORDAN: King Hussein took a risk by making peace with Israel
in 1994. But the crisis in Palestinian-Israeli talks has angered
Jordanians, who have seen little peace dividend.
14. IRAQ: UN inspectors have worked to disarm Iraq of weapons of
mass destruction, but Baghdad continues to thwart efforts. Since
northern and southern uprisings against President Saddam Hussein at
the end of the Gulf War, Saddam has tightened his grip, despite a
broad UN- and US-imposed no-fly zone. He also exposed two covert
CIA operations meant to topple him. Neighbors see Iraq as a buffer
against Iran's Islamic fundamentalism and fear Iraq will become too
weak - or too strong.
15. SAUDI ARABIA: It has nearly one-fourth of the world's known
oil reserves. But despite spending billions on arms, it is unable
to defend itself against Iran and Iraq. King Fahd is ailing, and
the Crown Prince is seen to be less pro-West. …