A furor broke out after it was reported that the uniforms of U.S.
Olympians had been manufactured in China. "They should take all the
uniforms, put them in a big pile and burn them," said an apoplectic
Sen. Harry Reid.
The story tapped into the anger -- and fear -- that Americans
feel about the loss of manufacturing to China. Seduced by government
subsidies, cheap labor, lax regulations and a rigged currency, U.S.
industry has rushed to China in recent decades, with millions of
American jobs lost. It is these fears, rather than the Olympic
uniforms themselves, that triggered the congressional uproar.
But Ralph Lauren berets aside, the larger trends show that the
tide has turned, and it is China's turn to worry. Many CEOs,
including Dow Chemicals' Andrew Liveris, have declared their
intentions to bring manufacturing back to the United States.
What is going to accelerate the trend isn't, as people believe,
the rising cost of Chinese labor or a rising yuan. The real threat
to China comes from technology. Technical advances will soon lead to
the same hollowing out of China's manufacturing industry that they
have to U.S industry over the past two decades.
Several technologies advancing and converging will cause this.
The robots of today aren't the androids or Cylons that we are
used to seeing in science fiction movies, but specialized
electromechanical devices run by software and remote control. As
computers become more powerful, so do the abilities of these
devices. Robots are now capable of performing surgery, milking cows,
doing military reconnaissance and combat, and flying fighter jets.
Several companies, such as Willow Garage, iRobot and 9th Sense, sell
robot-development kits for which university students and open-
source communities are developing ever-more sophisticated
The factory assembly that China is currently performing is
child's play compared to the capabilities of the next generation of
robots -- which will soon become cheaper than human labor. One of
China's largest manufacturers, Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology
Group, announced last August that it plans to install one million
robots within three years to do the work that its workers in China
presently do. It has found even low-cost Chinese labor to be too
expensive and demanding.
Artificial intelligence is software that makes computers, if not
intelligent in the human sense, at least good enough to fake it.
This is the basic technology that IBM's Deep Blue computer used to
beat chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997 and that enabled IBM's
Watson to beat TV-show Jeopardy champions in 2011. AI is making it
possible to develop self-driving cars, voice-recognition systems
such as the iPhone's Siri and Face.com, the face-recognition
software Facebook recently acquired.
Neil Jacobstein, who chairs the AI track at the Silicon Valley-
based graduate program Singularity University, says that AI
technologies will find their way into manufacturing and make it
"personal": We will be able to design our own products at home with
the aid of AI design assistants. He predicts a "creator economy" in
which mass production is replaced by personalized production, with
people customizing designs they download from the Internet or
How will we turn these designs into products? By "printing" them
at home or at modern-day Kinko's using shared public manufacturing
facilities such as TechShop, a membership-based manufacturing
workshop featuring manufacturing technologies now on the horizon.
"Additive manufacturing" is making it possible to cost-
effectively "print" products. In conventional manufacturing, parts
are produced by humans using power-driven machine tools, such as
saws, lathes, milling machines and drill presses, to physically
remove material until you're left with the shape desired. …