Newspaper article St Louis Post-Dispatch (MO)

Scientist Warned of Mudslide Danger 15 Years Ago

Newspaper article St Louis Post-Dispatch (MO)

Scientist Warned of Mudslide Danger 15 Years Ago

Article excerpt

ARLINGTON, Wash. * A scientist working for the government had warned 15 years ago about the potential for a catastrophic landslide in the area where the collapse of a rain-soaked hillside over the weekend killed at least 24 people and left scores missing.

Searchers found 10 more bodies Tuesday as they slogged through muck and rain, in addition to the 14 found previously, Snohomish County Sheriff's Office spokeswoman Shari Ireton said.

With the grim developments came word of the 1999 report by geomorphologist Daniel Miller, raising questions about why residents were allowed to build homes on the hill and whether officials had taken proper precautions.

"I knew it would fail catastrophically in a large-magnitude event," though not when it would happen, said Miller, who was hired by the Army Corps of Engineers to do the study. "I was not surprised."

Snohomish County officials and authorities in the devastated rural community of Oso said they were not aware of the study.

But John Pennington, director of the county Emergency Department, said local authorities were vigilant about warning the public of landslide dangers, and homeowners "were very aware of the slide potential."

In fact, the area has long been known as the "Hazel Landslide" because of landslides over the past half-century. The last major one before Saturday's disaster was in 2006.

"We've done everything we could to protect them," Pennington said.

Patricia Graesser, a spokeswoman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Seattle, said it appears that the report was intended not as a risk assessment, but as a feasibility study for ecosystem restoration.

Asked whether the agency should have done anything with the information, she said: "We don't have jurisdiction to do anything. We don't do zoning. That's a local responsibility."

The Seattle Times first reported on Miller's analysis.

No landslide warnings for the area were issued immediately before the disaster, which came after weeks of heavy rain. The rushing wall of quicksand-like mud, trees and other debris flattened about two dozen homes and critically injured several people. …

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