Newspaper article THE JOURNAL RECORD

Bear Market Predicted to Follow Bush Election

Newspaper article THE JOURNAL RECORD

Bear Market Predicted to Follow Bush Election

Article excerpt

The election will likely be followed by a bear market in stocks, according to precedents set in prior ``landslide'' elections in this century. The timing and duration of the decline is still to be seen, but the next trend appears clear.

This table shows elections in the 20th Century where the winner amassed more than 400 electoral votes - George Bush won 426 - and the extent of the stock-market declines that followed during that presidential term.

``There has been no difference between Republicans and Democrats over the years,'' says Yale Hirsch of Old Tappan, NJ, founder and publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

"There has been no consistency in the duration and extent of the declines,'' Hirsch adds in his just-published special almanac devoted to the stock market and presidential elections.

Hirsch has traced elections, the stock market and the U.S. economy throughout the century and has found distinct patterns.

``The first post-election year,'' he reports, ``is generally a time when administrations elect to cool off the economy, make unpopular decisions and do the `dirty work' necessary to set the stage for economic recovery in the final two years of the presidential term.''

This early in the post-election period, it is far too soon to forecast with any certainty what will be the essential elements of the new presidency. But certain observations are justified. Issues that should have been part of pre-election debates will now become topics of post-election discussions - issues ranging from treatment of long-term capital gains to cutting the budget deficit.

These are hardly subjects that quicken the heart and stimulate the mind, but they are profoundly significant to us as a nation and to us as individuals.

Preferential treatment is likely for long-term capital gains. …

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