Newspaper article THE JOURNAL RECORD

Witnesses Attack Forecasts for Projected System Growth

Newspaper article THE JOURNAL RECORD

Witnesses Attack Forecasts for Projected System Growth

Article excerpt

Journal Record Staff Reporter "There's only one thing you can say about a forecast with certainty: It's going to be wrong," a Price Waterhouse economist testified Wednesday in a cogeneration hearing at the Oklahoma Corporation Commission. J. Kenneth Robertson testified on behalf of Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co., which began presenting its case against two proposed Smith Cogeneration Inc. plants Monday. He, along with two OG& E witnesses Tuesday, attacked Smith's forecasts for growth on OG&E's system in support of the two 100-megawatt power plants. OG&E asserts no new power will be needed until at least 2003, and then only peaking units for peak demand times rather than base-load plants that gener- ally operate continually. While forecasting is an art rather than a science, Robertson said that the risk of error can be reduced by using more than one forecast as data into a model so a broader spread can be seen to trace trends. This, he said, was not done by Smith. "It gives me some degree of confi- dence in that forecast" if several input forecasts are used, Robertson said, adding that, obviously, historical data will always be the same. Conversely, Neil Dikeman, a former University of Oklahoma economics professor and witness for Smith, testified in February that it was better to use only one model with one set of input data to minimize confusion, it was pointed out by OG&E attorney Dan Binns. Robert- son disagreed. While Robertson attacked Smith's forecasts of OG&E system, Smith attorney Sam Hammons noted numerous corrections Robertson made to his testimony in the case _ in excess of 25. Hammons also noted flaws in the OG&E forecast that were ordered to be cor- rected by the commission in a separate case. Because of attacks on credibility of forecasts and the makers of those forecasts during the Smith portion of the hearing, which began earlier this year, the commission administrative judge presiding over the hearing has ordered that actual results on the OG&E system be provided. …
Search by... Author
Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

Oops!

An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.