Newspaper article The Canadian Press

'Game of Chess' Could See CP Rail Boost Bid Up to US$35.8 Billion, Says Analyst

Newspaper article The Canadian Press

'Game of Chess' Could See CP Rail Boost Bid Up to US$35.8 Billion, Says Analyst

Article excerpt

CP Rail could raise bid to US$35.8B: analyst

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MONTREAL - Canadian Pacific Railway has room to raise its bid for one of America's largest railways by nearly US$8 billion, or as much as 26 per cent, an industry observer says.

The company has said its initial offer for Norfolk Southern, which would create the biggest railway in North America, was just a starting point. Scotiabank analyst Turan Quettawala said the Calgary-based railway can go as high as US$120 per share in cash and stock or US$35.8 billion.

"If Norfolk Southern's board is willing to play ball, it will definitely have to be at a price which is above the approximately US$95 (per share) which CP has suggested so far," he wrote in a report Monday.

The Virginia-based railway rejected CP Rail's (TSX:CP) offer Friday as "grossly inadequate." It also assailed CP's "cut-to-the-bone strategy" and suggested the U.S. regulator is unlikely to approve a takeover deal at any price.

Canadian Pacific CEO Hunter Harrison and activist investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital are scheduled to hold a conference call Tuesday morning to respond in detail and "correct every inaccuracy" raised, the railway says.

Quettawala described the takeover battle as a "game of chess."

Moving first with a takeover bid is risky, but it puts CP Rail in a commanding position to benefit from any consolidation in the rail industry by choosing a target that will deliver the most savings and offering concessions that could win regulatory approval, he wrote.

He also questioned whether the deal would lead to other mergers.

"If this were to be the only merger, then it may end up being the deal of the century in the railway world."

While U.S. regulatory approval is uncertain, Quettawala said there is a low risk of Canada objecting. But that could change, he said, if CP is required during negotiations to make concessions to move the headquarters to the U. …

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