Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition

By Randall W. Stone | Go to book overview

A
Data

The data set for this study, The Post-Communist Politics and Economics Database (PCPED), includes monthly data for twenty-six countries from January 1990 through December 1999. The replication data set for this study is available on the author's web page, as is a continuously updated data set including additional variables. The sample contains all former Soviet republics, Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia (before January 1993), the Czech and Slovak republics (since January 1993), Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, and Mongolia.1


DOMESTIC POLITICAL VARIABLES

GOVERNMENT DURATION counts the number of months the current government has been in office. Changes in prime minister or in the main party of the ruling coalition are coded as fall of government.2 No change of government is coded when a junior partner leaves the coalition but the prime minister and the main coalition partner remain the same.

MONTHS TO ELECTION counts the number of months till the next scheduled parliamentary election. Any changes in the date of elections during the term of the parliament have been noted, and the count has been updated from the

____________________
1
The Czech Republic is coded as the continuation of Czechoslovakia after December 1992.
2
In the few cases when a prime minister dies unexpectedly (e.g. homicide or accident), the government is coded as continuing. The exception is Kyrgyzstan's Prime Minister Djumabek Ibraimov, who died in Bishkek on April 4, 1999, after a long struggle with cancer – I assume that this condition was common knowledge. In Armenia, after Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian was shot on October 27, 1999, the president temporarily performed his duties and later appointed a new prime minister. In this case, the count for the months the government had been in office continued uninterrupted since these were unanticipated events, the same party remained in government, and the same program was being implemented. In Hungary, after the death of Prime Minister Jozsef Antall on December 12, 1993, the count continued uninterrupted.

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Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Contents vii
  • Figures xi
  • Tables xiii
  • Acronyns xv
  • Preface xix
  • Lending Credibility *
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • Part I - Models and Data 13
  • 2 - A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 15
  • Appendix - A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 29
  • 3 - Studying Imf Effectiveness 39
  • 4 - An Empirical Test of the Model 59
  • Part II - History 87
  • 5 - Poland 89
  • 6 - Russia 116
  • 7 - Ukraine 169
  • 8 - Bulgaria 209
  • 9 - Conclusion 233
  • Appendixes 243
  • A - Data 245
  • B - Statistical Methods 250
  • C - List of Interviews 262
  • Bibliography 266
  • Index 279
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