# Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition

By Randall W. Stone | Go to book overview

B
Statistical Methods

Coauthored with Timothy Carter, Christopher Kam and Kalina Popova

B.1 MULTIPLE IMPUTATION

Assumptions

All imputation methods depend on assumptions about how data come to be missing. Denote partially observed variable(s) as Y, fully observed variables as X, a missing/observed indicator matrix as M, and let the subscripts “obs” and “miss” signify observed and missing data respectively. The implications of various missingness assumptions for using listwise deletion (LD) and multiple imputation (MI) are summarized in Table B.1.

Intuition

The imputation strategy is not to maximize any objective function but, rather, to generate imputations that reflect as accurately as possible the process that generated the original data. Consider incomplete data generated by flipping an unbalanced coin that lands “heads” with probability. 6. One could minimize the error between the “real” (but unobserved) data and any imputations by setting the missing values equal to “heads.” However, this would be an inferior method to an imputation technique that emulated the original data-generating process by imputing “heads” with probability. 6 and “tails” with probability .4, because setting all the missing values to “heads” would bias the point estimates.1

Rubin (1977) uses a simple regression approach to motivate MI. Imagine a simple linear relationship between Y and X:

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1
Rubin 1996, p. 475.

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Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition

• Title Page *
• Contents vii
• Figures xi
• Tables xiii
• Acronyns xv
• Preface xix
• Lending Credibility *
• 1 - Introduction 1
• Part I - Models and Data 13
• 2 - A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 15
• Appendix - A Formal Model of Lending Credibility 29
• 3 - Studying Imf Effectiveness 39
• 4 - An Empirical Test of the Model 59
• Part II - History 87
• 5 - Poland 89
• 6 - Russia 116
• 7 - Ukraine 169
• 8 - Bulgaria 209
• 9 - Conclusion 233
• Appendixes 243
• A - Data 245
• B - Statistical Methods 250
• C - List of Interviews 262
• Bibliography 266
• Index 279
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