The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century

By W. W. Rostow | Go to book overview

Notes

Preface
1.
The reader might be interested in the degree of continuity between Theorists of Economic Growth from David Hume to the Present: With a Perspective on the Next Century ( New York: Oxford University Press, 1990) and the present book. In Chapter 20, I made the following observation on the course of and prospects for world population: "The trend in the net reproduction rate had fallen by the 1970s below 1.0 in seventeen advanced industrial countries; by 1986, of the nineteen industrial market economies listed by the World Bank, all but one ( Ireland) had total fertility rates under 2.0. A figure of 2.1 is roughly required for long run population stability. From such data the World Bank has provided, under stylized arbitrary assumptions, the hypothetical size of a stationary population for each country and the assumed date at which it will be reached. . . . The fact is that the 1980s has seen the emergence of the strongest surge of anxiety and analysis of the implications of population decline since the 1930s; and the beginning of pronatalist public policies in some advanced industrial countries. For the moment it is sufficient to note that the world community is likely to confront simultaneously in the several generations ahead anxieties centered, in different parts of the world, on excessive increase and excessive decrease in population; that the richness of contemporary statistical data is not yet matched by firm knowledge of the determinants of fertility; and it is likely -- perhaps certain -- that the old unresolved issue of how to define an optimum population level will arise again, if it is not already upon us" (p. 451). In Chapter 21 of that

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The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Preface vii
  • Contents xi
  • One - The Framework 3
  • Two - Population and the Stages of Growth 45
  • Three - Technology and Investment 47
  • Introduction 47
  • Conclusion 77
  • Four - Relative Prices 79
  • Five - Cycles 97
  • Six - The Limits to Growth 119
  • Seven - The Role of the United States in the Post-Cold War World 139
  • Eight - The Critical Margin and America's Inner Cities 157
  • Nine - Conclusions 181
  • Appendix A - A Historical Analogy 187
  • Appendix B - The Demography of the People's Republic of China 195
  • Notes 203
  • Index 221
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