CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM SCENARIOS
This appendix describes the six types of scenarios that were created to examine the effects of catastrophic terrorist attacks: outdoor chemical release, indoor chemical release, dirty bomb, nuclear detonation, anthrax release, and small– pox release. The goal of these scenarios is to highlight the needs of individuals during such events by identifying the potential effects of the attacks. The sce– narios do not assume the implementation of any individual strategy. To achieve catastrophic effects, the scenarios involve attacks with various weapons of mass destruction. They are based on a combination of previously existing scenarios, historical experiences, models, and publicly available literature. Estimates of exposures, casualties, and fatalities are included only to gain a sense of the impact on various services and infrastructure critical to individuals. These order-of-magnitude estimates should not be construed as the results of a rigorous evaluation of weapons effects. They merely represent a point in the range of possible effects.
We attempted to make the consequences of the various types of attacks plausi– ble. We did not assess the probability of the attacks. In addition, there are many variations of how these weapons could be used and often much debate over the extent of the effects. Our analysis seeks solely to ascertain the needs of the individual, which we concluded to be sufficiently similar across variations in the scenarios.
Each scenario is organized as follows. First, a brief overview of the scenario is given in the background. Second, the event history describes the details of the attack and its consequences. Next, the scenario timescale is mapped to delin– eate the different periods of the attack–i.e., before, during, and after (the methodology for determining each of these is described below). Finally, an