Estimating the Benefits of the Gridwise Initiative: Phase I Report

By Walter S. Baer; Brent Fulton et al. | Go to book overview

3
Phase I Estimates of GridWise Benefits

In this chapter, we make preliminary estimates of GridWise benefits..17 To establish a baseline without GridWise, we use the projections through 2025 of system capacities, electricity consumption, and prices contained in the most recent Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2003) published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA 2003). The baseline data and projections are summarized in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 below and are presented in more detail in Appendix B.18

We then phase in GridWise over 20 years, beginning in 2006,19 and compare the results with those from the AEO 2003 baseline. To explore the sensitivity of benefits to the input data and assumptions, we develop a series of scenarios representing different, but plausible, development paths for GridWise. Benefits for each scenario are calculated as the present value over 20 years of the cash flow differences from the AEO 2003 baseline projections.

____________________
17
These estimates represent gross benefits that do not include GridWise R&D and implementation costs. Net benefits, including such costs, will be estimated in Phase II.
18
Estimates of U.S. noncoincident peak load without GridWise, derived from Table 3.3 of the most recent Electric Power Annual (EIA 2001), also are part of the baseline projections shown in Tables 3.1 and 3.2 and in Appendix B.
19
The estimates assume that GridWise implementation and resulting benefits begin no earlier than 2006.

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Estimating the Benefits of the Gridwise Initiative: Phase I Report
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Summary xi
  • Acknowledgments xv
  • Acronyms and Abbreviations xvii
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • 2 - A Framework for Assessing Gridwise Benefits 7
  • 3 - Phase I Estimates of Gridwise Benefits 12
  • 4 - Discussion 29
  • 5 - Plans for Phase II 35
  • Appendix A - Microeconomic Discussion of Gridwise-Enabled Demand Response 37
  • Appendix B - Baseline Projections, 2001–2005, Without Gridwise 43
  • Appendix C - Results and Input Variables, by Scenario 49
  • Appendix D - Estimates of Benefits for Nominal Scenario 51
  • References 55
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