Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: The Prospects for Green Growth

By Paul Ekins | Go to book overview

some pollutants at least, there is an ‘environmental Kuznets curve’ for pollution and income, i.e. the relationship between them is on an inverse-U shape, whereby pollution initially increases with rising income, but then reaches a maximum and falls thereafter. Chapter 7 is devoted to an examination of this evidence.


A6

APPENDIX

A6.1

The calculation of the necessary reduction of T in the Commoner-Ehrlich equation on various assumptions

Where subscript 1 indicates the quantity now, subscript 2 indicates the quantity in fifty years’ time, superscript H indicates high income countries, superscript L low and middle income countries (the ‘Third World’), according to the World Bank’s classification and using data from World Bank (1997), and superscript W indicates the whole world, and using the assumptions for population growth and sustainability given earlier, we have:

I2H=I1H/2, I2L=I1L/2 for sustainability

P1W=P1H+P1L

P2W=P2H+P2L=2×P1W; Population growth=P1W

(i.e. population is assumed to double)

P2H=P1H+0.05×P1W; P2L=P1L+0.95×P1W

P1H=902 million; P1L=4771 million; P1W=5673 million

P2H=1186 million; P2L=10160 million; P2W=11346 million

C1H=$24,930; C1L=$1,090

P1HC1H=$22.49×1012; P1LC1L=$5.20×1012; (P1C1)W=$27.69×1012

I=(PC)W.T

where (PC)W=PHCH+PLCL=Total global consumption.

Using this formulation and the earlier assumptions about population and sustainable environmental impact, the environmental implications of five different development paths can be analysed.

1 No growth in population or consumption:

T must be reduced by 50 per cent

-180-

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